A long game of musical jockey chairs can wind up perfectly for Andrew McNamara at Leopardstown tomorrow if Sizing Europe proves the bookmakers right and graduates to the big time in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle.
The long-time ante-post favourite is having just the 10th start of his career and only Lounaos of his five opponents in tomorrow's €150,000 feature is rated below him.
Despite that most bookmakers have taken the view that Sizing Europe's potential outweighs the proven standards of the current AIG title holder Hardy Eustace and the four other Grade One winners in the field.
Not surprisingly the seat on the Henry De Bromhead-trained horse has been much coveted this week with Timmy Murphy committed to Al Eile, Ruby Walsh to Ebaziyan and Denis O'Regan still serving a 14-day suspension.
The De Bromhead team have elected for the in-form McNamara who scored a hat-trick at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day and whose big-race tally at the track also includes last season's Hennessy on Beef Or Salmon.
McNamara sat on Sizing Europe for the first time yesterday morning and said afterwards: "It was only a canter but he's a lovely, athletic horse and he was really chilled out. It's a great ride to get and I suppose we will find out how good he is. He has looked really good so far so hopefully he will show himself to be top class."
Sizing Europe's emergence at hurdling's top table occurred at Cheltenham in November when beating no less than Osana by four lengths. The Irish horse was getting 6lb from his rival but there was no denying the impression he made and in this weekend's context, there was also no ignoring how well he handled soft conditions.
"Judging by Cheltenham he should be at home on the ground on Sunday and will handle it better than most," McNamara added. "Ideally we'd like some pace to the race but Hardy Eustace always runs his race and Al Eile is there too, although he might not love the going."
Hardy Eustace defeated Brave Inca in a classic AIG clash last year but the going was much better then and the former dual-champion has always needed decent ground to show his best. The same comment applies to Al Eile and Ebaziyan.
The question mark over Aitmatov is different in that Noel Meade's string have not been firing as they usually do. There has been no evidence of a change of form so far which is a pity since Aitmatov's proven ability to act on testing conditions, and over two and a half miles too, would look ideal for this weekend.
A return to form by Meade would be a huge boost for those who believe in Aitmatov's chance but in the conditions the best bet looks to be to rely on Sizing Europe's potential.
Tomorrow's other Grade One is the Baileys Arkle and it can provide Thyne Again with a top-flight winning opportunity after a career interrupted by leg problems. Liam Burke has sold on enough high-class animals from the point-to-point field to know a good horse when he sees one and he has made no attempt to hide his regard for Thyne Again.
That opinion was boosted with a good win at Naas last time and although the extended two-mile trip is shorter than ideal for Thyne Again, the ground conditions will still make it a stamina test.
The in-form Willie Mullins team rely on Scotsirish in the Arkle but they could have better luck in the two other novice races with Pomme Tiepy looking particularly interesting in the Grade Two three-mile chase.
Another ex-French Mullins five year old, J'y Vole, trotted up by a distance at Gowran on Thursday and Pomme Tiepy looks to be cut from a similar cloth judged by her Irish career to date. Certainly the 21lb she gets from the Grade One winner Notre Pere will be significant over this trip and on this ground.
It could pay to rely on Our Bob in the Grade Two Toshiba Hurdle after a smooth Naas maiden success.
