IN terms of precedent, the medium term future for all four of tomorrow's Church and General National Football League semi finalists is bleak.

Of last year's semi finalists, only the unlikely in the sense that Derry cleaned them out figures of Mayo made a championship impact. This decade, only Cork in 1990 have reached the semi finals of the League and gone on to win the All Ireland the following autumn.

It hasn't stopped the NFL winners becoming hot championship favourites, but follow through has been non existent. The context in which teams have to be judged at this stage of the year is not the conventional one of success and failure on the field but the development of a plausible formation for the summer.

Frequently, a happy team is one which loses narrowly enough not to undermine their morale but decisively enough to point up some critical areas where self improvement is needed. Mick O'Dwyer apparently let his guard slip after Kildare had edged out Offaly in Navan a fortnight ago by referring to his opponents being "lucky" in that they could withdraw from the spotlight and prepare for the championship.

The last week has shown O'Dwyer to have some problems that could do with a quiet spell rather than having to face the levels of public interest generated by the closing stages of the League. Indiscretions of discipline have deprived Johnny McDonald and Dale Hynan of their places.

McDonald's contribution over the years has been erratic. On his day, he is an exciting forward and has had such days this year, in Leinster's Railway Cup run for instance. Off his game, he is anonymous and this condition has unhappily tended to coincide with big matches.

Hynan is, by all accounts, more of a loss. Physical and industrious, he has impressed as a complement to Niall Buckley's footballing skills. His transgression is said to be comparatively minor, so presumably the intention behind the finger wagging is to avoid any further outbreaks of what Dr Pat O'Neill, used term non compliance.

Kildare's clash with Cork unites the two sides that led Division One for most of the regulation matches. There was only a point in it when they met at the end of November, although the narrow defeat flattered Kildare a little. On the evidence of the quarter finals, there are sound reasons for believing that Cork will repeat the trick.

The most impressive aspect of Kildare's win over Offaly was that it demonstrated a bit more resilience than has been associated with the team in the past. Doggedly hanging in when the run of play was swamping them, they managed to go up the gears in the dying minutes to clip off a one point win.

In their minds, however, they were playing a team that they would be expected to beat and against whom they would feel such acts of resurrection to be possible. How confident would they be of overturning a similar deficit against Cork?

In terms of personnel, Kildare still have a bit to prove. Buckley is in excellent form and Glen Ryan has enjoyed a good season. The return of Seamus Dowling is good news and the McCormacks - Eddie and Paul - are useful forwards. After that, there is an uncertainty about the team. Martin Lynch's suitability at full forward is sometimes argued with spellbinding performances but never with the sort of consistency a serious team wants.

The attributes that made him such a dazzling midfielder when in form, make him a good ball winner at full forward but the problem of creative disposal which hindered his play in the middle also applies to his distribution and laying off of ball to other forwards. He can score, but often sees no alternative to having a go.

Cork's defence is more settled than the attack. Yet to come into consideration are John O'Driscoll, back from injury, Joe Kavanagh, back from Australia, and Mark O'Sullivan. Steven O'Brien's display at full forward was interesting, but the positioning may have owed more to his lack of match fitness than to Larry Tompkins's along term intentions.

His athleticism and skill made him a hard man to mark for Louth and with Colin Corkery playing well further out from goal, O'Brien was given good service. The pairing should, however, be the attack's championship axis as both can direct a ball accurately into the full forward line.

Kildare's sometimes ponderous short game may work up the flanks where Cork aren't as composed but in the middle, even in the likely absence of Liam Honohan, they are big enough to snuff out the threat of a running game.

The first semi final features the two counties who did most to impress in the semi finals, Kerry and Laois. There were mitigating factors in both matches, so optimism has to be dealt with carefully.

Kerry's win was marked by some excellent forward play once they established a rhythm but the awfulness of Down's opposition has to be taken into account. In the early stages Kerry looked nervous and missed good opportunities with a profligacy that wouldn't go unpunished against more interested teams.

There appears to be a hopeful air about the county but in some ways it's hard to see why the team that ended last year's championship in despair may have changed for tomorrow, but it isn't improved. Were last year's team available the first 15 would show little change.

Dara O Cinneide has shown a welcome return to form and his injury enforced absence weakens the team considerably. Maurice Fitzgerald is still as gifted as ever and looks more combative but there the unarguable positives run out.

William Kirby has shown some exciting glimpses but needs to - and may well - do more to convince as championship material. It's too early to be certain. Likewise Barry O'Shea at full back. At times he has looked very promising but questions remain, and by all accounts he wasn't hectic against Cork in last Wednesday's under 21 final.

Liam O'Flaherty similarly has to do more before he can be advanced as a championship centre back. The absence of Tommy Byrne from Paidi O Sea's and Seamus MacGearailt's plans continues to puzzled. As a centreback - in the physical force tradition he has no obvious superior. He is short of pace, but his power and ball winning capacity would be an obvious buttress for a young and inexperienced midfield.

With Liam Hassett not maintaining his best form and O Cinneide absent, the spine of the team looks less than sturdy.

Laois are making strides. The strength of the quarter final performance was its exuberance. Never mind that Derry's motivations were questionable, Laois played well and displayed the high quality of some of their playing stock. With the exception of the full backs, all the other lines had their moments.

The youthfulness of centre back Conroy and Delaney beside him is balanced by Denis Lalor's experience on the right wing. Tony Maher and PJ Dempsey are a good, strong midfield. And there are some fine forwards.

Hugh Emerson's hat trick of goals when moved to full forward obscures his primary purpose in the forwards, providing a physical presence and direction on the 40, but moving him in has proved a useful tactic in the past and may well do so again. Ian Fitzgerald is likely to trade free kicks with his illustrious namesake without significant loss.

More than this, Laois have the momentum of a settled team who effectively know their championship line up. In the light of the quarter finals, even if Derry weren't at full tilt, they were a lot better than Down who didn't give Kerry anything like the sort of examination that Laois will.

Manager Michael Dempsey mightn't want Laois drawing too much attention to themselves, but she'll at least have the 1986 experience to guide him should his team ends up winning the League - a state of affairs likely to be a step closer by teatime tomorrow.