An 18-runner classic with a favourite that has been traded at 5 to 4 in the ante-post market is the scenario in tomorrow's Entenmann's 1,000 Guineas, and while Wince has an obvious chance of completing a classic double, it could pay to side with Sunspangled for a reversal of form.
Wince was a well-backed favourite for the Newmarket Guineas, and despite hanging left in the closing stages, she ran out a half-length winner for Kieren Fallon.
The third filly that day, Valentine Waltz, has since burned home in the French Guineas, so on paper the form looks solid. However, it may be dangerous to take it at face value, as the Newmarket race looked messy.
The field split into two groups on the fast ground, and it could be argued that Valentine Waltz and the runner-up, Wannabe Grand, were slightly unlucky losers. The muddling nature of the contest was emphasised when Tommy Stack's Fear And Greed was badly hampered at the two-furlong pole by Moiava, who had pulled much too hard.
The eclipse of Sunspangled was much easier to explain. Aidan O'Brien's filly hated the fast ground. She also raced in the far side group, looked as if the run would do her good and as a two-year-old Group One winner over a mile, Sunspangled was hardly suited by the slow early pace.
"Disaster," was O'Brien's summing up of the day, but significantly Michael Kinane said it was the ground rather than the trip which accounted for Sunspangled's desperately disappointing 15th position.
The easier ground on a stiffer track will be in Sunspangled's favour, as will having had a run under her belt. Wince will be hard nut to crack, especially with Fallon chasing a first Irish classic, but she is a very short price and the selection is much better than she showed at Newmarket.
The other intriguing Group One contest on the card is the Tattersalls Gold Cup, which has been upped in status from last year when Daylami ran out a smooth winner. Subsequent victories in the Eclipse and the Man O'War at Belmont proved the grey to be a top notch performer and, back on turf after a run in the Dubai World Cup, Daylami is difficult to oppose.
Second Empire has the latent class to beat Daylami but has to prove he will settle, and any dig in the ground will be all in the favour of the Prix Dollar winner, Insatiable, who may be too long a price, but Daylami and Frankie Dettori look the logical answer.
High King still holds an Epsom Derby entry and goes on trial in the Airlie Stud Silver Stakes, but a one-length defeat of Piranesi in his last race at Leopardstown hardly shouts classic contender. River Canyon appeared not to stay behind Port Bayou in the Derrinstown Derby Trial, but if Saffron Waldon's defeat of Mus-If early in the month means anything, it must give the fast-finishing third, Blast Of Storm, a chance here.
Winged Hussar can complete a good day for John Murtagh with a repeat win in the concluding Guinness Festival Handicap.