RUGBY IRELAND v ARGENTINA:WE'VE BEEN here before and we know what to expect. Ireland and Argentina don't tend to do 'friendlies' anyway. They have never been particularly well-disposed to each other. Now, at the ninth time of asking in 10 years, the stakes are, as ever, fairly high.
There remains a one-in-four chance that we have all been getting ourselves in a needless lather about world rankings, for even if Ireland and Scotland do or don't swap places there remains a 25 per cent chance that they can be drawn in the same pool.
Somehow though, you sense today's result will have repercussions. Victory (or a draw) for Ireland would at least remove the possibility of being in the same pool as, say, one of the big Southern Hemisphere three and England or France. It might well mean avoiding these dastardly Pumas as well. Now there's a prize.
For Argentina, the stakes are every bit as great. Win and ultimately hold on to fourth in the rankings would mean they avoid the Southern Hemisphere big three in the groups.
The conditions ought to be good, for the forecast is for a dry, relatively windless day. Not that this will make a whit of difference. Most probably, it will be taut, tight, feisty and fractious. A Croker cracker it is unlikely to be.
Though retaining only six of the starting team that faced Ireland in the last World Cup, the Argentina pack retains its gnarled and grizzled look. On the evidence of their 12-6 defeat to France - if less so their highly impressive win in Turin last week - and without Felipe Contepomi they are even less likely to be ambitious.
It is not the kind of game either side will want to go chasing, and the key from an Irish point of view will be matching the Pumas in the set-pieces and in the collisions, and the forwards generating some overdue go-forward ball. If they do, with Geordan Murphy's recall, they undoubtedly have the greater potency in midfield - where the Pumas are untried - and out wide. That said, the Pumas' pressure defence looks as good as ever.
Whether an ominous portent or not, Alan Quinlan - the man whose try has given Ireland their only World Cup win in three attempts - will not be taking part. The failure of his appeal to a three-week suspension means that the vacancy on the Irish bench has been filled by the uncapped 24-year-old Tipperaryman Donnacha Ryan.
Invariably, much of the pre-match debate has continued to focus on Ronan O'Gara's candid summons to arms in light of Munster's showing against the All Blacks. "I've known Ronan a long time and sometimes he just splurts out his honesty with his own inner frustration," said Kidney.
"What you're trying to do is combine everything that we have between the four provinces and the idea is for everybody to bring their package to it. It was a self-reflection as much as anything else. There's a lot of things happening in the world financially, there's a bit of doom and gloom around, there's a small bit of that about the team and I just think he was looking to pull the whole thing together."
But not alone was Tuesday's game in Thomond Park a complete one-off, but Ireland cannot be as homogenous. Nor does Croke Park, with the pitch set further away from the crowd, have Thomond's intimacy.
O'Gara's comments have upped the ante for his team and especially himself. They were akin to his comments before Munster went to Leicester three seasons ago and we all know how Munster, and O'Gara, delivered that day.
Kidney was right to deny that this game will define the next three years, though it will define this autumnal campaign. It could also prove era-defining if Ireland were to lose. Argentina are not fourth in the world by chance but ditto Ireland in eighth.
The last time Ireland beat a country ranked above them was Australia at home two years ago. Since beating Italy in March '07, Ireland have just three home wins over Scotland and Italy along with wins over Namibia, Georgia and Canada. The other 11 they have lost. Argentina operate on a playing field more akin to the latter three, but they are at their best when in camp together for an extended period of time, ie a World Cup or a November tour.
One suspects they will be at their sleeves-rolled-up best today. The sight of green jerseys invariably ensures as much. But the core of this Irish team have a chance to atone for the decline of the last two years and not to saddle the 2011 team with a potentially monstrous World Cup draw. Defeat, therefore, would leave the slate wiped clean come the Six Nations.
Hence, like at no time than at any point since the 2007 World Cup, today is the time to make a stand, and deliver.
HEAD TO HEAD:Played 10, Ireland 5 wins, Argentina 5 wins.
PREVIOUS RESULTS:2007: Argentina won 30-15, Parc des Princes (RWC); 2007: Argentina won 16-0, Velez Sarsfield; 2007: Argentina won 22-20, Club Atletico Colon; 2004: Ireland won 21-19, Lansdowne Road; 2003: Ireland won 16-15, Adelaide Oval (RWC); 2002: Ireland won 16-7, Lansdowne Road; 2000: Argentina won 34-23, Ferrocaril Oeste; 1999: Argentina won 28-24, Stade Felix Bollaert (RWC); 1999: Ireland won 32-24, Lansdowne Road; 1990: Ireland won 20-18, Lansdowne Road.
FIVE-GAME FORM GUIDE:Ireland - 3-22 v New Zealand (h); 55-0 v Canada (h); 12-18 v Australia (a); 11-21 v New Zealand (a); 10-33 v England (a). Argentina - 22-14 v Italy (h); 6-12 v France (a); 9-63 v South Africa (a); 12-13 v Italy (h). 14-26 v Scotland (h).
LEADING POINTS SCORERS:Ireland - Ronan O'Gara 851. Argentina - Juan Martin Hernandez - 54.
LEADING TRY SCORERS:Ireland - Brian O'Driscoll 32, Girvan Dempsey 19, Ronan O'Gara 14, David Wallace 10. Argentina - Federico Martin Aramburu 8, Francisco Leonelli 7, Hernandez 6.
BETTING (Paddy Powers):4/9 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 7/4 Argentina. Handicap odds (= Argentina + 6pts) 10/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 New Zealand.
FORECAST:Ireland to win.
THE CONSEQUENCES OF DEFEAT
NEVER BEFORE has a round of "friendlies" in November carried so much significance. Ireland and Scotland are vying for eighth place in the IRB rankings and a second-tier seeding at the World Cup draw in London on December 1st, while a number of countries are scrambling for fourth place and, with it, a top-tier seeding.
Scotland should beat Canada today so Ireland need to beat Argentina to retain eighth place. A draw would suffice but a defeat could see them slip to ninth - and so into band three for the pool allocation draw.
Argentina currently occupy fourth position in the rankings, but were they to lose to Ireland they could lose that position to England, France or Wales depending on results elsewhere. The prize at stake is to avoid New Zealand, South Africa or Australia, none of whom can slip out of the top three, in the pool stages.
The only way Wales can jump from seventh to fourth is by beating New Zealand for the first time since December 1953 - although they would still also need Argentina, England and France to all lose to Ireland, South Africa and Australia respectively. Wales cannot slip any lower than seventh.
For France to leapfrog England and Argentina into fourth they would need to beat Australia at the Stade de France by more than 15 points and the other three contenders all lose - or that Wales do not beat the All Blacks by a similar margin.
Were Argentina, England, France and Wales all to suffer defeat then the Pumas would just retain fourth spot from England, although Wales would climb above France. However, if the quartet all lose with Argentina going down by more than 15 points to Ireland they would swap places with England, even if Martin Johnson's side were also to lose by a similar margin against South Africa.
Even victory over Ireland may not be enough to keep Argentina in fourth position. It should be providing England do not beat the Springboks by more than 15 points.
RANKINGS
1 (1) New Zealand 92.41
2 (2) South Africa 88.45
3 (3) Australia 86.70
4 (5) Argentina 82.82
5 (4) England 82.11
6 (6) France 80.13
7 (7) Wales 79.58
8 (8) Ireland 77.18
9 (9) Scotland 76.76
10 (11) Fiji 75.24
Brackets signifies previous ranking
