SOCCER/Rep Ireland v Andorra:FOR THOSE supporters already impatient to discover how this year-long qualification campaign is going to turn out, one of Uefa's sponsors, Castrol, has obligingly hired what is doubtless a team of crack anoraks to put together a website where both individual matches and final group standing are predicted on the basis of previous performances.
There is, as they say, good news and bad news for the Irish. Giovanni Trapattoni’s men are given a 94 per cent chance of beating Andorra at the Aviva Stadium tonight but less than a one in three shot of making it to Poland and the Ukraine in two years’ time.
However, since the Italian confirmed he will start the same team against the minnows as took the field on Friday in Yerevan, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion he is, first and foremost, just a little preoccupied with the estimated six per cent chance of a shock tonight.
Taking even the weakest of teams for granted is, of course, a dangerous game, even when that particular team in question has now lost 25 straight qualifiers since holding the Finns to a scoreless draw on home soil five years ago.
To be fair, you can imagine the Macedonians might be a little wary when David Rodrigo and his players come calling, given they took just one point from their two games against them during the 2006 World Cup campaign, and tonight’s visitors did give the Irish supporters a brief shock when they took the lead for a minute or two on their last visit in 2001.
Still, their record on the road would, one suspects, generate a little more confidence in a manager less cautious than Rodrigo’s opposite number this evening.
Having spent the best part of last week talking up his side’s chances of securing what was a decent away win in Armenia, Trapattoni was at pains yesterday to suggest that fans making the trip to Lansdowne Road should expect nothing more than the most modest of wins. After that, the idea seems to be, anything more can be regarded as a bonus.
It goes without saying, of course, that winning the game is the first priority but grinding out a single-goal victory over a side sandwiched between East Timor and American Samoa, a handful of places off the foot of the world rankings table, will not be the ideal springboard for next month’s games against Russia and Slovakia.
The Ireland team rarely lets fly, even against this calibre of opposition but a few goals tonight would be important not just for the players’ morale but also potentially for the coffers of the FAI who, having proudly pronounced last year there would be no tickets on general sale for games at their redeveloped home, can’t seem to achieve a single sell-out now the place is finally open.
That Paul Green has retained his place in the starting line-up was one of the bigger talking points yesterday and it’s unlikely to have been taken too well around the Gibson kitchen table.
Darron Gibson could do with getting a good deal more experience under his belt at this level and if the Manchester United midfielder can be sidelined for a game like this because he is considered less industrious than the Derby County midfielder then it really is difficult to imagine what it would take for Andy Reid to get himself back into the international reckoning under the current regime.
The other significant opportunity this match appeared to present was to have a look at an alternative left back under competitive conditions, but Greg Cunningham’s case for inclusion appears to have weakened over the summer and Trapattoni seems not to fancy a more wide-ranging reshuffle at the back.
It is hard to see it being a major issue this evening and Trapattoni says he will look to make changes as the night goes on but it remains to be seen whether the manager’s lack of adventure comes back to bite him in the not too distant future.
For all of that, though, even this most conservative of team selections should be well capable of delivering a win and a few goals this evening. The visitors conceded 37 times in 10 games during the last campaign, with the bulk of them let in on their travels and it would be a major surprise if they could stem the flow in Dublin.
Robbie Keane spoke yesterday of his satisfaction with the way his partnership with Kevin Doyle up front has blossomed over the past couple of years and the pair really should prove a handful for even a tightly-packed Andorran defence.
Both Liam Lawrence and Aiden McGeady should benefit from the game time they got in Yerevan and both have the capacity to thrive this time out, while Green and Glenn Whelan, despite being selected primarily for their defensive attributes, should each enjoy opportunities to get forward in support of the front men.
“We have to impose our game,” observes Trapattoni, “but their concern will be to avoid conceding and that can make things difficult. We have to have the confidence to score goals.”
It would be something of a disappointment if they lack that on this occasion but just to be on the safe side perhaps the players could do with a pep talk from the boys at Castrol.
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND: Given (Manchester City); O’Shea (Manchester United), Dunne (Aston Villa), St Ledger (Preston North End), Kilbane (Hull City); Lawrence (Portsmouth), Green (Derby County), Whelan (Stoke City), McGeady (Spartak Moscow); Doyle (Wolves), Keane (Tottenham Hotspur).
ANDORRA (probable): Jose Antonia; Cristian, da Silva, Lima, Bernaus; Pujol, Vieira, Ayala; Rubio, Pujol, Moreno, Serbas.
