Tri-Nations duel promises plenty

IT hasn't panned out as the home unions would have liked, and effectively this World Cup has become a Tri-Nations' showdown in…

IT hasn't panned out as the home unions would have liked, and effectively this World Cup has become a Tri-Nations' showdown in Europe's backyard. Thus the temptation might be to not even open the curtains (semi-final tickets apparently couldn't be offloaded in Ireland this week) but in truth the semi-final line-up should be compulsory, as well as quality, viewing.

The cream has risen to the top, as it always should do, and purely from a rugby perspective the World Cup ought to be all the better for it. Granted, today's first semi-final between Australia and South Africa may be no free-flowing spectacle, but there won't have been a more fiercer collision to date in this tournament.

Australia's swarming defence is widely regarded as the best on the planet, and accordingly has conceded just two tries in the tournament thus far. However, the fierce defence of the Springboks has equalled them, also only conceding two tries. The bookies make the Wallabies marginal favourites and most rugby pundits and supporters would assuredly go along with that. They arrived at the World Cup with a more settled team and in good form courtesy of a commanding Bledisloe Cup win over the All Blacks which saw them finish above the Springboks in last summer's Tri-Nations.

The return of a refreshed and focussed Toutai Kefu following his run-in with Trevor Brennan should give the Wallabies more ball-carrying ability than they had in Cardiff last week, former Springbok captain Tiaan Strauss reverting to his impact sub's role.

READ MORE

Pound for pound, the Boks' pack will meet their Wallaby counterparts head-on, and there's little to choose between the world's top two scrum-halves, George Gregan and Joost van der Westhuizen, whose head-to-head contest alone should be an epic.

Thereafter though, the Wallabies seem to have a host of potential match-winners behind the pack. For example, even though Jannie de Beer produced the match-winning performance of the tournament with his phenomenal drop goal barrage against England, Stephen Larkham has far more ingenuity and variety to his game.

And then there's Tim Horan, Daniel Herbert, Ben Tune, Joe Roff and Matt Burke. Doubt, however, remains that Horan will take his place in the number 12 jersey given a stomach virus that has upset him in the last 48 hours. If he is ruled out, the experienced Jason Little will come off the bench.

Rod Macqueen's team tend not to use these talented backs off setpiece ball, preferring instead to set up several ruck phases before unleashing them, and hence they don't quite excite.

By comparison though, the Springboks are a far cry from the flamboyant team which equalled the world record for consecutive wins last year. Instead they have reverted to type, and seem to be re-invoking the spirit of '95 when they won the World Cup with their impenetrable defence and Joel Stransky's opportunism.

Hence, the new pragmatism coming from a confident Nick Mallett this week. "We have only conceded two tries in this tournament. Our defence has been good, and at this stage, it comes down to taking your opportunities, whether that is kicking drop goals or penalties should the chances arise. We will hopefully try and pressurise them (the Australians) into making mistakes, and get the little edge required in a match like this one."

His counterpart is concerned about whether this edge will be sought by legal means. Although two of South Africa's three wins in their last four clashes against Australia have been by a point, it is the 1998 Tri-Nations decider in Johannesburg which is focused firmly in Macqueen's mind.

That 29-15 defeat for the Wallabies came amid some dubious tactics from the Springboks, with half-backs George Gregan and Stephen Larkham singled out for particularly harsh treatment. Concerned that they will again be targeted, Macqueen said: "We can only assume that their aggression will be legal".

Although Mallett drew criticism for the way he removed Gary Teichmann as captain and installed Bobby Skinstad at number eight, with the appointment of the deeply devout van der Westhuizen as skipper, there is a religious, Afrikaaner zeal running through this team, as manifest by the postmatch huddle to thank God last Sunday in Paris ala 1995.

Certainly, no team will have a fiercer will to win as they seek to protect an unbeaten 10-match World Cup record. Last week's quarter-final was always going to make or break their World Cup campaign. With that 44-21 victory over England, all the preceding talk of rifts in the camp, of fatigue and crucial injuries, of Nick Mallett losing the plot by overreacting to defeats after his long initial run, are history. The slate has been wiped clean.

Furthermore, they would expect to beat an Australian side more so than they would an All Black one, say. And they have the mental edge provided by their 10-9 win in Pretoria in the nations' most recent meeting when their defence again held sway and, significantly, Matt Burke's place-kicking cracked under pressure.

Recalling the gale that blew that day, it could even be, however half-baked this theory might sound, that Australia are the superior sunny day side but the inferior bad weather team.

There's no great rhyme or scientific reasoning to calling this one. Yet the suspicion lurks that the Wallabies have a tad more creativity and invention, and more individual game-breakers amongst their backs, to score tries in tight situations. It may even be something to do with the cricket World Cup, which Australia won after an epic tied semi-final with South Africa. It could be almost as close as that again.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times