GAA/All-Ireland SF quarter-final replay/Dublin v Tyrone: So far this year's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football championship bears a marked resemblance to 2002's, writes Seán Moran, GAA correspondent
Already we have a Cork-Kerry semi-final, down for decision tomorrow, and with Armagh waiting in the other penultimate round to be played in eight days it only requires Dublin to win their replay against the defeated Ulster champions for the championship to come down to exactly the last four who contested it three years ago.
Sadly from a Dublin perspective, it's here that we must return to earth.
Tyrone are hot favourites to finish the job this afternoon and set up the third act of their grimly compelling, Northern drama with the neighbours.
Certainly there is little chance of them folding as alarmingly as Donegal did in 2002.
But the GAA can look forward to the same size of crowd. Three years ago more people attended the Dublin-Donegal replay than had turned up at the draw even though that had been part of a double bill.
Similarly this weekend Croke Park sources are expecting another bumper turnout, possibly in excess of the 78,514 that arrived two weeks ago - in other words a functional sell-out.
"The tickets that went on general sale sold out far more quickly than for the drawn match," said Fergal McGill of the Croke Park press office.
"Obviously whenever you put tickets out on general sale there is the danger that some will end up in the hands of touts but the last day we were able to sell some returns on the day and that undercuts the black market."
There have been the usual forlorn pleadings for Dublin fans to forgo their saloon-bar preliminaries a little earlier but with both counties' women's teams in action on the curtain raiser, there is an excellent option for those arriving in good time.
Replays seldom follow the pattern of their precursor - hardly surprising when both teams have been plotting to ensure the patterns of the first day do not recur.
Still it has been unusual to see Tyrone, the more successful and experienced of the teams, making the more radical changes. Serendipity would appear to one of Mickey Harte's many assets as a manager.
Two years ago after aerial nightmares against Down in the drawn Ulster final, he sprang Cormac McAnallen from centrefield back to full back and discovered the final lock his defence needed.
Two weeks ago Harte finally saw enough to convince him that Conor Gormley couldn't be kept at centrefield any longer. The attractions of the positioning have been hard to fathom. Gormley was never comfortable in the advanced role and the defence missed him badly.
Eventually the twin travails caused by Ciarán Whelan and Alan Brogan in the first half of the Dublin match brought about the necessary change.
Maybe it's surprising that Seán Cavanagh has returned to centrefield after an indifferent season there and a buccaneering second half on the wing the last day, but the return of Peter Canavan probably sealed that deal and in the process created a bit of hard luck for Joe McMahon, who played such a notable role in frustrating Whelan in the second half of the drawn match.
Paul Caffrey has simply named the same Dublin team again but there will be more to Dublin's game plan than a simple and fervent hope it all works out this time around.
Caffrey told the players during the week he had been wrong to resist switches for as long as he did and vowed this wouldn't happen again.
So we can expect decisive change if the early trends are worrying. That means Paddy Christie will need to rediscover his best form and also that we might expect Darren Magee to appear offering an alternative target at centrefield if Tyrone are ganging up on Whelan again.
Christie has been bothered by niggling injuries for a while and there must be some chance he mightn't make the starting line this afternoon, but one way or another Peadar Andrews is standing by to take his place if necessary. Should Magee be needed, Shane Ryan will switch to wing back with Coman Goggins likely to make way.
This has been a good year for Dublin. They have recovered spirit and self-respect as well as the Leinster trophy. But the improved form of Tyrone in the second half the last day means the bar has been raised and Dublin will have to rise with it.
There is a legitimate concern that far from being able to maintain their first-half form over the 70 minutes, Dublin might struggle to get even the 35 they got two weeks ago.
Stephen O'Neill is hardly going to be as inaccurate again even if good work by Paul Griffin played a part in that.
Peter Canavan's return is further evidence that Harte feels ready to step up a gear and will help improve Owen Mulligan's form.
Dublin will be aware that Tyrone have blown winning platforms in their last three big matches at Croke Park. Just as Harte's team has struggled to close the deal Dublin have managed to finish well.
The trouble with that equation is that it needs the margin to be down to a couple of points to have any chance of taking effect.
In other words Dublin mightn't be close enough as the clock starts to tick down to exert the necessary pressure.
DUBLIN: S Cluxton; P Griffin, P Christie, S O'Shaughnessy; P Casey, B Cahill, C Goggins; C Whelan, S Ryan; C Moran, A Brogan, B Cullen; J Sherlock, C Keaney, T Quinn.
TYRONE: P McConnell; R McMenamin, C Lawn, M McGee; D Harte, C Gormley, P Jordan; E McGinley, S Cavanagh; B Dooher, B McGuigan, R Mellon; P Canavan, S O'Neill, O Mulligan.
Referee: G Ó Conamha (Galway)
