European Cup, Pool Two/Ulster v Gloucester:Hope springs eternal and all that, and a capacity crowd will ensure a customary Heineken European Cup hotbed at Ravenhill for the high-flying Premiership leaders, Gloucester, tonight. By rights, strictly on form, there should only be one outcome but history has taught us that something about Friday nights under lights in Ravenhill tend to ensure such trivia is shredded come kick-off.
Examination of their poor away record in this competition since lifting the trophy in 1999 can await another day, but in their last 18 home ties over the previous six campaigns Ulster have won all but two matches against Biarritz and Llanelli which, in effect, were dead rubbers after a brace of away defeats.
In that time, Wasps, Northampton, Leicester, Gloucester, Saracens and London Irish have been put to the sword, and as the 45-point turnaround in this pair's meetings three seasons ago highlights, something strange can happen in the Belfast air.
For the most part they followed a familiar pattern, the likes of Roger Wilson and Neil Best smashing into anything that moved, they and the crowd in turn feeding off their charges, with an inspired David Humphreys taking whatever available three-pointers were on offer, and testing the visiting back three with his array of up-and-unders and angled kicks to the corner as Ulster applied their pressure game.
Very often they haven't scored too many points but their defence has held firm and they've played with a relentless intensity. But rarely have they seemed more in need of rediscovering those basic virtues as now, given they embark on a Euro campaign while propping up the Magners Celtic League, a tournament they won the season before last.
Last week's willing but almost aimless 25-6 defeat in Glasgow left them without a win since their seasonal opener, and averaging 11 points per game, although admittedly their only home match since that initial 17-16 win over the Ospreys was the 16-all draw with Leinster.
To some degree they've become victims of their own success, and at one point during the World Cup had 13 players unavailable.
To compound their woes Stephen Ferris has been sidelined for four to six weeks with a recurrence of the knee injury which afflicted him in Argentina and troubled him in the summer.
Perhaps "internationalitis" has also diluted their sense of cause and of unity. Either way, since the high of an admittedly flattering 30-3 win over a hopelessly out-of-sorts Toulouse on opening weekend a year ago, Ulster have won eight of their last 24 matches, or four of their last 16.
Despite the change in assistant coach, from Allen Clarke to Steve Williams, the 29-times capped Welsh player who has coached Coventry, Northampton (as assistant) and Pertemps Bees, there's been no obvious upturn in fortunes.
Mark McCall looks like a man under immense pressure, and the limitations of his options are reflected in just three changes in personnel from the Glasgow defeat, one of which - the return of Wilson - has been forced by Ferris' absence.
Neil Best moves to the openside to accommodate the return of Matt McCullough in a physical backrow which will need to deliver big time if Gloucester are to be prevented from establishing their impressive rhythm.
Ryan Caldwell loses out to the Italian-Australian combination of Carlo Del Fava and Justin Harrison, while the backline remains unchanged although there is an injury doubt about Humphreys, which despite his iffy restart radar last week, is a huge concern, mentally as much as tactically.
In the circumstances, a home start appears beneficial, although in the context of their season, the pressure to win is immense.
"Having a full house at Ravenhill will not only affect our team in a positive way but can also affect the visiting side," said McCall yesterday.
"The reason people recognise Ravenhill as a hard place to come and play is not only because of the game against Ulster but also the support our team get. Whilst there is understandably frustration amongst supporters at how we have played this season the team and squad need everyone at Ravenhill to get fully behind them on Friday night."
Nonetheless, Gloucester are back where they were for much of last season, atop the Premiership, and their summer acquisition from the Bradford Bulls, Lesley Vainikolo will start his first game since the end of September; the huge Tongan winger having scored five tries on his competitive debut in the opening 49-29 win away to Leeds in a potent back three alongside James Simpson-Daniel and Iain Balshaw.
Wingers tend to make the best recruits from league, where Vainikolo scored almost a try a game in 150 appearances. Mike Tindall returns alongside Anthony Allen in the only other change from the team which coughed up a 26-8 lead away to Wasps in the EDF Cup last Sunday.
This extended their recent blip to three games without a win, and the Cherry&Whites have lost away to all three Irish provinces in the Cup.
The return to the Cup, the rarified air, Humphreys being declared fit, underlining it with an early three-pointer or two, any signs of cracks in Gloucester's discipline, and all bets are on.
The longer that Ulster stay in touch the better their chances, but either way this will tell them and us much about their well-being.
ULSTER: B Cunningham; T Bowe, A Trimble, R Dewey, M McCrae; D Humphreys, I Boss; J Fitzpatrick, R Best (capt), B Young, J Harrison, C Del Fava, M McCullough, N Best, R Wilson. Replacements: N Brady, D Fitzpatrick, R Caldwell, K Dawson, K Campbell, P Wallace, M Bartholomeusz.
GLOUCESTER: I Balshaw; J Simpson-Daniel, M Tindall, A Allen, L Vainikolo; R Lamb, R Lawson; N Wood, O Azam, C Nieto, P Buxton (capt), A Brown, A Strokosch, A Qera, L Narraway. Replacements: A Titterrell, C Califano, M Bortolami, G Delve, M Prendergast, C Paterson, O Morgan.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales).
Previous meetings: (2004-05) Gloucester 55 Ulster 13; Ulster 14 Gloucester 12.
This season's formguide: Ulster - W L L L D L. Gloucester - W W W W W L D L.
Betting (Paddy Powers): 13/8 Ulster, 20/1 Draw, 1/2 Gloucester.
Handicap odds (= +5.0 pts) 10/11 Ulster, 20/1 (5.0) Draw, (-5.0) 10/11 Gloucester.
Forecast: Ulster to win.
