ULSTER v MUNSTER:
ON THE face of it, things don't look good for Ulster rugby. On the pitch, stagnation has persisted. One win out of seven games this season has seemingly consigned them to a 10th successive Heineken Cup campaign without reaching the knock-out stages and left them at the foot of the Magners League table.
Whatever about winning the Heineken Cup a decade ago, it's hard to credit they were winning the Celtic League three seasons ago and at this point two seasons ago were near the top of the table and coming off a 30-3 win over Toulouse.
In their last 41 competitive games since beating Glasgow in January 2007, Ulster have won 11, drawn one and lost 29, and there followed a mass exodus at the end of last season, which has required Matt Williams to embark on a huge rebuilding programme.
Crowds are down about 15 per cent at Ravenhill.
On top of this, while the British government prevaricated over the proposed multisport stadium at the Maze, Ravenhills 12,000-capacity stadium has been left looking more outdated as Munster and Leinster moved into 26,000 and 18,000 grounds.
For sure, Williams's arrival had engendered hope of an improvement on the pitch, but three narrow defeats denied a young, remodelled team an early injection of confidence and it was no great surprise that Stade Français and Harlequins had simply too much firepower for them.
Trevor Ringland, the legendary 31-times-capped Ireland and Lions winger (now a solicitor), remains a regular supporter at Ravenhill.
"Watching them in the match against Stade Français, basically they're two good backs short of being a reasonably good team, and Tommy Bowe being one.
"In the modern game you need real speed, real size or an extremely jinky player. Leinster have them, Munster have them, all the top teams have them."
Nor does he see any point in questioning Williams.
"My personal opinion is that you have to give the coach time to develop. He worked well for Leinster when he was there and I think Scotland actually benefited after he left from all the work he and Willie Anderson put in, with the fitness regimes and ball-handling skills."
When the onfield decline set in Ringland detected a desire to pass the buck as well as pass the ball. And it's hardly surprising that a squad that has lost David Humphreys, Andy Ward, Gary Longwell, Simon Best, Jonathan Bell, Tyrone Howe, Neil Doak and others in a relatively short period of time is now struggling for leadership. The back line, especially, lacks vocal leaders.
"I think the Irish supporter is a very easily pleased supporter once he sees 100 per cent effort and Ulster is fortunate to have a very good supporter base," says Ringland. "And while it might seem harsh to say it, sometimes in the last couple of years it hasn't always been there.
"What we really need to do is have a good hard look at everything in Ulster."
For example, drawing comparisons with Munster and Ulster, he asks: "If we're building a stadium for 11,000 to 14,000, are we setting our sights too low? Should we be trying to build a stadium of 20 to 25,000 to fill European Cup matches? Tying in business far more and taking ownership of Ulster so that we can have the money to bring in a couple of strike runners?"
As Ringland notes, Ulster still have a great sense of identity and history and a huge catchment area with, potentially, a high-profile, professional sports product, with a good coach, but he still wonders if they are maximising their potential.
Encouragingly though, Ulster's revenue from corporate hospitality is "holding up extremely well", according to Mike McLean of Premier Sports, who are subcontracted by the Ulster Branch. "In fact, we're sold out for the Llanelli (Heineken Cup) game already, and we have over 250 for this Munster game."
Encouraged by signs of a recovery this season and a belief in Williams, McLean adds: "Not only is the die-hard support right behind the team, but the whole of the business community is behind Ulster and passionately wants Ulster to succeed.
"But through no fault of Ulster Rugby, the dithering by the politicians over the national stadium hasn't helped. They've been fighting with their hands tied behind their backs because of this proposed Maze stadium, which now doesn't seem to be happening, hanging over them."
That would have accommodated Gaelic and soccer as well as rugby, and the frustration in the voice of the Ulster chief executive Michael Reid is audible. "We've been very, very slow here with regard to a multisport stadium by 2013, which is almost certainly not going to happen now.
"We've always had a twin-track approach with Ravenhill's short-term development in the background. Phase one starts in January and if they pull the plug on a multisport stadium on the Maze site we'll go back to the sports minister and support a soccer and rugby stadium in Belfast, with a capacity of 20-25,000. If that doesn't happen, we have phases two and three (for Ravenhill) in place and hopefully decisions on all this will happen in the next four to eight weeks. But we've been held up largely by central and local government, and this has been going on for 10 years. For us to have spent £15-20 million on Ravenhill at a time when there was a free ground available elsewhere would have been very foolish but there's no doubt it has held us back."
While Belfast City Council have two consultants working on the viability of a two-sport stadium, Ulster will press ahead with their €6.5-million redevelopment of the terracing, installing corporate boxes, VIP seats, bars and restaurants. Starting in January, it is projected to be completed by the start of the 2009-2010 season and will increase revenue by about €1.25 million per annum.
Long-term though, the maximum potential for Ravenhill, given its residential setting, would be about 15,000.
Charlie McCreevy's tax break for players who remain in Ireland doesn't apply in Ulster, and not alone are Munster and Leinster pulling away, but compounding this, Ulster are competing in the British market on an unequal playing field.
"In the Premiership in England they are generating £14 per head above ticket price," Reid points out, "whereas we were generating £1 (per person) here. On an average crowd of 10,000, that's 130,000 per game, which over a season of 13 matches would be £1.7 to 1.8 million. Those are simplistic sums but that's what we're losing out by not having proper corporate facilities."
Furthermore, McLean describes the appointment of David Humphreys as operations director as "inspirational", while Reid describes the former outhalf's portfolio as threefold.
"One is to use his status as a name and a brand to open doors for us. The second part of the job is purely commercial - to go out there and bring in commercial monies - and the third part is to oversee the rugby side for us in the longer term. Any coach, whether he's here for one year, three years or seven years, is transient."
They are also going to start work on their own state-of-the-art gym at their training base in the Newforge Country Club next April, to be completed within a year. So, while these are worrying times for Ulster rugby, it's not all doom and gloom, and plenty of people are committed to reviving their fortunes on and off the pitch.
But you sense the next couple of years still look critical.
MUNSTER APPEAR TO HAVE ALL THE MOMENTUM
BOTTOM ENTERTAINS top in Ravenhill tonight, which is as much a comment on Munster's expanding ambitions as on Ulster's difficulties. The European champions have made full use of their squad and approach this game as one of only two unbeaten sides across the Magners League, England and France.
As expected, Munster's international front five are rested, as are David Wallace, Ronan O'Gara, Keith Earls, Tomás O'Leary and Doug Howlett. The 10 changes effectively means nine of those that started the 19-9 defeat here last April will again line up come kick-off.
Yet this is a stronger-looking selection than the understrength sides Munster have sent here in the last few years, not least because they arrive on such a collective high.
In addition to their four overseas players, among whom Paul Warwick and Lifeimi Mafi are in outstanding form, seven of the Munster line-up are set to link up with the Ireland squad in Limerick on Monday. As there are also six Ulstermen on duty who fall into that category, the match could carry some significant meaning for the watching Ireland management.
A boost for Ulster is the return of Stephen Ferris from injury. With David Pollock promoted to the back row alongside 22-year-old Robbie Diack, this will be the first time for this dynamic-looking back-row combination to start together.
Ed O'Donoghue starts at lock ahead of Carlo Del Fava, while the rapidly improving Dungannon flanker Thomas Anderson (son of Willie) is recalled to the bench for the third time this season.
The back line is unchanged from the side that played Harlequins last weekend, and after the conclusion to his contract negotiations, there were signs of a return to form last week by Andrew Trimble, for whom a big game would be timely.
"There are no more formidable places to go than Ravenhill," said Munster coach Tony McGahan. "Ulster are a tough, robust side. But we have full confidence in our squad, in their ability to put their best foot forward to. . . defend the good form we've shown up to now."
A forecast of wind and rain is likely to limit the attendance to 10,000-odd, some way down for a fixture usually a highlight of the Ravenhill calendar.
ULSTER: B Cunningham; T Nagusa, D Cave, P Wallace, A Trimble; N O'Connor, C Willis; J Fitzpatrick, R Best (capt), BJ Botha; E O'Donoghue, R Caldwell; S Ferris, D Pollock, R Diack. Replacements: N Brady, T Court, C Del Fava, T Anderson, I Boss, I Humphreys, M McCrea.
MUNSTER:D Hurley; A Horgan, B Murphy, L Mafi, I Dowling; P Warwick, P Stringer; F Pucciariello, D Fogarty, T Buckley; M O'Driscoll (capt), D Ryan; A Quinlan, J O'Sullivan, J Melck. Replacements: J Flannery, Darragh Hurley, M Melbourne, J Coughlan, M Prendergast, J Manning, K Lewis.
Referee:Alain Rolland (IRFU).
Betting (Paddy Power):13/8 Ulster, 25/1 Draw, 1/2 Munster. Handicap odds (= Ulster + 5pts), 10/11 Ulster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.
Forecast:Munster to win.
