Should neither Arsenal nor Manchester United win the Premiership this season, then who? It is difficult to argue a convincing case for any of the likely alternatives.
Aston Villa are setting a robust pace at the top but their present squad lacks depth, Liverpool have Michael Owen in attack but still need a goalkeeper of quality and an authoritative central defender, Leeds United would have been stronger contenders had George Graham stayed and Chelsea are an international concert party.
It would be nice to think that somebody could still emerge from the pack to steal the title from under the noses of the big teams of the day, just as Burnley and Ipswich did in the early Sixties, but the chances of that happening now are so remote as to be barely worth considering.
About the only way a club can still come from nowhere to win the championship is by winning the Lottery first, which is what happened to Blackburn Rovers when a mega-rich fan, Jack Walker, decided to build the club a new stadium and provide a team to go with it. Blackburn's triumph of three years ago was not entirely down to money; the players still had to perform. But nothing would have been achieved without Walker's backing.
The majority of Premiership clubs belong to what George Orwell called the upper-lower-middle class, content to maintain status and respectability without having the financial wherewithal to live on equal terms with the seriously rich. Derby County are typical of the breed.
Twenty-six years ago Brian Clough's precocious Derby side snaffled a championship which seemed certain to go to the Leeds United of Don Revie if it did not end up back at Liverpool with Bill Shankly.
Before Derby played Manchester United at Pride Park on Saturday the club's television screens were recalling a previous meeting at the Baseball Ground in the early Seventies when Kevin Hector and Archie Gemmill merrily traded goals with the United of Bobby Charlton, Denis Law and George Best.
Then Derby were on the rise while United were four years away from relegation. Some people continue to insist anything can happen in football but in this case history is unlikely to be repeated.
For while this match again proved that Derby's present stadium is aptly named it also reemphasised the widening gulf in resources which exists between United and those who once harboured realistic ambitions of competing with them on equal terms.
United were nine minutes away from defeat when Alex Ferguson replaced one trio of internationals with three more and saw his side not only force a draw but come close to gaining a victory which would have left them two points behind Villa with a match in hand. Bold though the substitutions were, this was a reminder of what even Arsenal are up against as they attempt to combine success in the Champions League with retaining the title.
As for Derby, they took solace in ending a run of three successive defeats with a solid, tactically astute performance that halted United's recent glut of goals. They did so primarily by playing with three strikers and getting the ball to them as quickly as possible, which had the effect of pinning back the opposing defenders even if it did not produce an abundance of scoring chances.
Their uncomplicated approach enabled them to curb United's attack before half-time and dominate the game territorially for much of the second half. Had Lars Bohinen not torn a calf muscle in training the Norwegian's extra subtlety might have enabled Dean Sturridge and Deon Burton to cause Ferguson's defenders more problems than they did.
Yet once Smith had brought on Tony Dorigo for the second half Derby's movements acquired an accuracy of service from the left wing which promised them victory. Dorigo, a free agent after 15 months with Torino, has been signed on a month's contract with a view to a longer stay at Pride Park and the impression made by the former Leeds defender was certainly favourable.
After 74 minutes Dorigo's was the back-heel to Darryl Powell which threw the United defence on to the wrong foot as the latter's low ball from just beyond the lefthand corner of the penalty area was touched past Peter Schmeichel by Burton.
For United it was looking like a quiet day back at the office after the euphoria of beating Brondby 6-2 in Copenhagen in the Champions League. Ryan Giggs had gone into the game accompanied by reports of a hamstring injury and played like it, and neither Dwight Yorke nor Andy Cole could get the better of a Derby defence looking more settled with the return of Igor Stimac after injury.
Then Ferguson replaced Gary Neville, Nicky Butt and Giggs with Jordi Cruyff, Paul Scholes and Jesper Blomqvist - fresh legs with fresh ideas - and suddenly United were a force once more. A drive from Blomqvist looked goalbound until it was inadvertently blocked by Cruyff, who then secured the draw in the 86th minute with a careful shot inside the right-hand post following a clever build-up by Jaap Stam, Wes Brown and Yorke.
"When you're down you have to do things like that," said Ferguson. "I could put three players on and any one of them could have scored."
"I would have settled for a few that weren't on their bench," said Smith, summing up why it is becoming increasingly difficult in the Premiership for the underdog to have even half a day.
Derby County: Hoult, Schnoor, Powell, Stimac, Sturridge, Wanchope, Delap, Laursen (Dorigo 46), Prior, Carsley, Burton. Subs Not Used: Poom, Carbonari, Elliot, Baiano. Booked: Schnoor, Powell. Goals: Burton 74.
Manchester United: Schmeichel, G Neville (Scholes 81), Stam, Beckham, Butt (Blomqvist 81), Cole, Giggs (Cruyff 81), P Neville, Keane, Yorke, Brown. Subs Not Used: Van Der Gouw, Berg. Booked: Cole, G Neville. Goals: Cruyff 86.
Referee: P Durkin (Dorset).
