CAPE TOWN was almost washed away under a great orange sea of Dutch support yesterday, with another wave due to hit today as they make their way in from the giant camp they have established 60 kilometres away near the town of Paarl, one of the first places the Dutch settled three centuries ago.

All of which tends to starkly emphasise the underdog nature of Uruguay’s challenge. A nation of 3.3 million striving for their third World Cup (the next smallest nation to have won the thing is Argentina, population 40 million).

The Dutch having, won all eight qualifying games, have won all five of their games in south Africa and on paper are the short odds favourites tonight.

The Dutch record comes with the usual caveat regarding statistics though. They have been winning here without impressing overly; even against Brazil they looked dreadful before being gifted a goal which caused their opponents to disintegrate and the Dutch to raise their game to something above adequate.

They need their cutting edge, Robin van Persie, to have played his way into some form by now. Their over-reliance on Wesley Sneijder is likely to catch up with them at some stage. Since his return from injury, Arjen Robben has taken up some of the slack but the Dutch will have noticed with some displeasure how thoroughly shackled Robben was (by fair means and foul) against Brazil. On the other wing Dirk Kuyt works as hard as anybody in this competition but just lacks that spark. And with full back Greg Van der Wiel and defensive midfielder Nigel de Jong out on a suspension?

De Jong is likely to be replaced with the similarly styled Stijn Schaars if the Dutch decide against a more attacking formation. If they go for something a little more positive, hoping to open up the Uruguayans early, Rafael van der Vaart is available.

The Uruguayans, even without their pantomime villain Luis Suarez, will scent blood. In Diego Forlan they have an attacker with the energy and wit to do damage to a Dutch central defence which, while it will welcome back Joris Mathijsen, had a tendency to lose touch and to ball-watch against the Brazilians.

The Dutch, incidentally, have been having a little fun at the Uruguayans’ expense, with goalkeeper Martin Stekelenburg getting involved with Ajax team-mate Suarez.

“I sent him a text message saying that he has been the best goalkeeper of the tournament,” Stekelenburg told De Telegraaf. “I think he should get the Lev Yashin Award.”

Oscar Taberez, the Uruguayan manager, wasn’t finding it all so light-hearted yesterday when questioned about the Suarez incident and his involvement in the scenes of celebration at the end of the Ghana match. He defended his player and impatiently dismissed a line of questioning about Suarez as “disrespectful”.

The side he has brought to Africa are worthy of respect. The Uruguayans are tough and have grown together through a turbulent qualifying campaign which saw them lose six and draw six of their 18 matches. The Dutch by contrast can scarcely recall the last time they lost a match. For teams that isn’t always as good as it sounds. Should the Dutch fall behind today the brittleness they showed against Brazil may reappear.

They have advantages in that the Uruguayans, like most South American teams, tend to tuck in and defend compactly and as such Robben in particular could do them damage.

There has been talk of the Dutch gambling and being a little more adventurous to compensate for the poor form of van Persie. But it doesn’t seem to be in van Marwijk’s nature to throw caution to the wind.

Expect a tight, thoughtful game with the Uruguayans doing the high energy working and harassing, and the Dutch looking for their openings and playing the percentages.

Again Klaas-Jan Hunterlaar, surely the most frustrated player here, will bide his time before van Persie is withdrawn.

Recent tradition, population, familiarity. It all points to a Dutch win.

This has been a topsy turvy World Cup though. Reward has been going to the more positive sides and for once Dutch caution may betray them.

No classic but Uruguay by the odd goal in three.