RUGBY LEINSTER v MUNSTER:AT LAST the phoney war is over. For the last couple of seasons the Leinster-Munster game has marked the real starting point of the Irish rugby season and the return to the resplendent Aviva Stadium with a virtual capacity underlines the feeling that come 7.30 tonight it's time to rumble again.
Regardless of backdrops, form or venues, no rivalry underlines the remarkable growth of Irish rugby in latter times. That over 50,000 people will be in attendance is proof of that. It has effectively added another Test match to the season, although perhaps only better in that there will be more colour and noise amid the forecast showers.
The sides met at the exact same juncture in the RDS last season, at which point it’s instructive to note that while Munster came into the game on the back of three successive wins, Leinster did so with four wins from four. Their ensuing 30-0 victory represents the third of four successive wins over the auld enemy, a stark illustration of how there has been a power shift between the two heavy hitters of Irish rugby, with Leinster now leading the overall League and Cup head-to-head by 10-9.
But Leinster come into this game on the back of three defeats in four, whereas Munster have four wins from four. Munster also have the more settled side going into this latest rendezvous, and the changes in coaching structures alone cannot explain this. Nor, for that matter, can the much discussed player welfare programme.
One accepts Brian O’Driscoll’s view that it takes four or five games for players to hit their straps but the fixture a year ago marked a barnstorming and try-scoring, seasonal debut for the Irish captain.
Indeed, O’Driscoll (two games), Rob Kearney (two), Luke Fitzgerald (four) and Jamie Heaslip (two) have more rugby under the belts now than 12 months ago, while Gordon D’Arcy (two) has the same, and likewise Ronan O’Gara, Tomás O’Leary and Donncha O’Callaghan all have more rugby under their belts.
The difference is that injury have deprived Leinster of stalwarts such as Leo Cullen, Stan Wright, Kevin McLaughlin and, of course, Jonathan Sexton. Thus, whereas six of Munster’s more seamless starting line-up are playing their fifth game of the season, only Fitzgerald and Isa Nacewa have been ever-presents for Leinster.
Joe Schmidt will give Sexton up until an hour before kick-off to ascertain if his strained quadriceps has recovered sufficiently for him to make his seasonal reappearance. But if it’s that borderline, one suspects they may not risk it with Europe looming.
Even though Munster have lost Tony Buckley to a stomach bug, the return of John Hayes will hardly disrupt their frontrow, while the other two changes see Wian du Preez and Alan Quinlan picked ahead of Marcus Horan and David Wallace.
Munster have rotated their frontrow better but with the likes of Jerry Flannery, the rival Fogarty brothers, Wright and Buckley ruled out, it’s hard to envisage either frontrow having the kind of dominance that makes a tangible difference.
In the in-form and more settled combination of Donncha O’Callaghan and Donnacha Ryan Munster possibly have an edge over the newly formed Nathan Hines-Devin Toner partnership, but the return of Jamie Heaslip makes for an intriguing and overdue set-to between the new Leinster skipper and Denis Leamy.
Such is Heaslip’s immense influence on Leinster as their leader in a pack of followers (Hines’s hard-nosed grunt adds to that mix) that in his two and a bit games on the pitch thus far Leinster have actually outscored their opponents by eight tries to three and 62-42.
There isn’t much to choose between the back threes, where Luke Fitzgerald and Doug Howlett are on fire and there ought to be a fascinating and important kicking and countering duel between Rob Kearney and Paul Warwick, who is due a good performance in this fixture.
Ditto Lifeimi Mafi, and the D’Arcy-O’Driscoll axis this season which, if inspired, ought to hold sway. But halfback is more influential and here Munster look to have the most pronounced edge. Whereas the well-established. The O’Leary-Ronan O’Gara pairing will effectively be playing their fourth outing in a row, Isaac Boss will either be servicing a rusty Sexton for the first time or Nacewa for the first time since the opening defeat in Glasgow.
And while it’s worth noting Nacewa’s goalkicking ratio (14 from 17) has thus far matched O’Gara’s (17 from 21), he has nothing like the latter’s experience of the position or tactical kicking acumen. O’Gara will also be itching for this one. Furthermore, Munster also have the stronger looking bench, studded with hurt and hungry veterans who will be straining at the leash.
On a line through their respective treks to Scotland, Munster are two scores the better side. Admittedly, form doesn’t count for a whole amount in this fullest of full-on derbies, and Leinster will surely leave the tepid ball-carrying and passive/porous defending behind them to front-up physically.
With home advantage, the occasion and their circumstances demand it and, after all, they haven’t given Munster a whiff of a try in those last four wins, though that also gives Munster the whiff of vengeance in their nostrils.
Either way, bring it on.
Overall ML head-to-head: Played 16, Leinster 9 wins, Munster 7 wins.
Leading try scorers: Leinster: Isa Nacewa 2. Munster: Niall Ronan 3, Johne Murphy 2.
Leading points scorers: Leinster: Nacewa 46. Munster: Ronan O'Gara 45.
Betting(Paddy Powers): 10/11 Leinster, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.
Forecast: Munster to win.
