Wales v South Africa:WARREN GATLAND this week wore the frustrated look of a man who had a winning lottery ticket but could not find it. His meticulous planning for last Saturday's Test against Australia foundered on a couple of turnovers and, as he turned his attention to today's encounter with South Africa, he reflected on the helplessness of a coach at key moments in a match.

Wales have gone into autumn internationals, even before Gatland took over as head coach at the end of November 2007, believing they were good enough to beat South Africa, New Zealand or Australia, but the main invention they have shown is in finding different ways of losing. “Wales always talk up a good game but they never deliver,” taunted former Australia wing David Campese this week.

Wales’s record against the Southern Hemisphere’s big three in the professional era is lamentable, three wins in 41 Tests.

It was understandable in the ’90s, as Wales emerged from a long cycle of record defeats, but 12 of the side that will take the field today are Lions. Wales have the pedigree but not the precision.

A few months after Gatland took over, he said he had been surprised at the natural talent of his charges. It was, the New Zealander remarked, more refined than that of players in his homeland. He struggled then to understand why Wales had, apart from a couple of years, not just underachieved but struggled to make the knockout stages of the World Cup.

He knows the reason now and last Saturday was typical of Wales. Gatland’s gameplan of taking on Australia up front and not being drawn into a loose game would probably have worked but for two forwards losing possession in the Australia half, but equally as costly was Wales’s failure to take advantage of the eight turnovers they forced.

South Africa should be more beatable than the Wallabies, and not just because they finished at the bottom of the Tri-Nations. They are without 13 injured players and, like England, are trying to evolve their game from one based on power and attrition to a style that is more fluid. Yet they have arrived in Cardiff before with a team of dirt-trackers and misfits, and left victorious.

Last June Wales were bullish at their prospects of recording only a second win over South Africa and were even more sanguine after 21 minutes when they led 16-3 but they needed a last-minute try from Alun Wyn Jones to reduce the Boks’ victory margin to three points. For all their talent, Wales lack belief. It is where coaching stops that Wales’s problems begin. Players used to being bottle-fed have to fend for themselves.

“We have to be more confident,” Gatland said. “We want the players to be expressive . . . we do not want them to go for a 20-metre touch: aim for 50 and do not worry if it does not come off. The difference between us and the top three in the world comes down to ruthlessness and concentration.”

Gatland laughed at a suggestion South Africa would be the “easiest” of the Tri-Nations sides this month. As he pointed out, a team that contains Tendai “The Beast” Mtawarira, the Du Plessis brothers, Bakkies Botha, the incomparable Victor Matfield, who will today win a record 103rd Springbok cap, Juan Smith, Pierre Spies, Jean de Villiers, Frans Steyn and Bryan Habana can hardly be regarded as fodder.

Yet Wales should expect to beat a side they will meet in the opening round of next year’s World Cup. They have have done enough against the Tri-Nations sides under Gatland to show that they have the raw material. Wales have the pieces but they have yet to find a collective self-belief. Defeat today would be their fifth in a row, their worst run since Gatland took over, but it is a chance for a side who are better than their recent record suggests to show they can take responsibility.

Guardian Service

WALES: (Ospreys) Lee Byrne (Scarlets) George North (Cardiff Blues) Tom Shanklin (Ospreys) James Hook (Ospreys) Shane Williams (Scarlets) Stephen Jones (Ospreys) Mike Phillips (Cardiff Blues) Gethin Jenkins (Scarlets, capt) Matthew Rees (Ospreys) Adam Jones (Cardiff Blues) Bradley Davies (Ospreys) Alun Wyn Jones (N-G Dragons) Dan Lydiate (Cardiff Blues) Martyn Williams (Ospreys) Jonathan Thomas Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett (Ospreys), 17 Paul James (Ospreys), 18 Ryan Jones (Ospreys), 19 Andy Powell (Wasps), 20 Richie Rees (Cardiff Blues), 21 Andrew Bishop (Ospreys), 22 Chris Czekaj (Cardiff Blues).

SOUTH AFRICA: Gio Aplon (Western Province) Bjorn Basson (Blue Bulls) Frans Steyn(Racing Metro) Jean de Villiers (Western Province) Bryan Habana (Western Province) Morne Steyn (Blue Bulls) Ruan Pienaar (Ulster) Tendai Mtawarira (The Sharks) Bismarck du Plessis (The Sharks) Jannie du Plessis (The Sharks) Bakkies Botha (Blue Bulls) Victor Matfield (Blue Bulls, capt) Deon Stegmann (Blue Bulls) Juan Smith (Cheetahs) Pierre Spies (Blue Bulls) Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle (Bulls), 17 CJ van der Linde (Cheetahs), 18 Flip van der Merwe (Bulls), 19 TBC, 20 Francois Hougaard (Bulls), 21 Zane Kirchner (Bulls), 22 Patrick Lambie (Sharks).

Referee: Steve Walsh(Australia).

Assistant referees: B Lawrence S Terheege. TMO: G Hughes.