IT IS five years since a Wales coach last said “same again”. While the All Blacks have been widely criticised for their policy of rotating selection, the New Zealand-born Wales coach, Warren Gatland, has for once named an unchanged starting line-up against Samoa with the only new face on the bench being the prop, Gethin Jenkins, who has recovered from a calf injury.
Wales’s narrow defeat by the holders South Africa in Wellington last Sunday, when they missed two late kicks that would have won the match, was the one rousing performance by a Six Nations country in the opening round and it should have yielded more than a mere bonus point.
They now face a shoot-out against Samoa in Hamilton tomorrow. Defeat now would almost certainly see Wales perish at the group stage for the fourth World Cup in six, although a group that also includes South Africa and Fiji may see the team that finishes second suffer two reverses.
Wales have had a week to recover from their opening match, but Samoa have just a four-day turnaround for a game that is highly significant to both sides.
Despite the defeat, last Sunday was probably Wales’s best performance since they won the 2008 Grand Slam under Gatland. Had they not been hit by injuries to five senior players, they would have been able to match the Springboks’ resources on the bench that ultimately proved the difference between the sides.
Wales surprised the Springboks with their sustained ferocity. Three players who had made an impact with the Lions in South Africa in 2009, Jamie Roberts, Mike Phillips and Alun Wyn Jones, rediscovered their form of that tour, showing a hardened resolve that proved infectious.
Wales were happy to seek contact, Roberts regularly taking the ball at pace through the channel of the outhalf Morne Steyn, but they will need to create space against a side who relish head-on confrontation but also play in the right areas. Wales have in the past been vulnerable against Samoa and Fiji because they have traded control for anarchy.
“We have to make sure our patterns are correct,” says Shane Williams. “This week is going to be even more important than the last one. This is a different Samoa team to the ones we have faced in the past. There is more structure to their game and their set-pieces are good, but as soon as you start playing sevens against them you are in trouble.”
Gatland has not been afraid to invest in youth. The average age of Wales’s backrow is less than 23 and Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau and Dan Lydiate have just 37 caps between them, but they eclipsed the vastly more experienced South African loose trio and their ability to force turnovers may be decisive against Samoa.
If Wales show the same drive and determination that left South Africa hanging on at times, they will surely win but it is far from a given. What should galvanise them is the knowledge that defeat would surely mean an early ticket home, and while that has not been the case in the past, Wales have become mentally tougher under Gatland. Tomorrow will show by how much.