SEÁN MORAN GAELIC GAMES: It's not easy finding a precedent that suits Waterford's situation going into Sunday's showdown

SHOULD WATERFORD buck the odds and win Sunday's All-Ireland it will mean eight of the nine viable senior hurling champions will have won the Liam MacCarthy in the last 20 years - allowing that Galway will next year inexplicably slide out of that timeframe.

Even the odd county out, Limerick, have been to three All-Ireland finals during that period. This prospect provides an encouragingly competitive bigger picture, as hurling moves within one match and one season of experiencing its first decade of unmitigated domination by the Big Three counties.

On the other hand, Kilkenny are one win away from completing that most tangible expression of greatness, a three-in-a-row of All-Ireland titles.

Sports psychologist Professor Aidan Moran has expressed the view that "tradition and the past are over-emphasised in the GAA", both in terms of the environment they create for and the impact they have on the psychology of those without a history of success.

Paul Flynn who, had he been born across any of four Waterford county boundaries would now have at least one All-Ireland medal, was pensively sceptical of the role such considerations might have played in his county's underachievements over the past decade.

"You're aware of the facts and figures and stats, but there was no particular sliotar or ball that I missed because there had been a 50-year gap or a 35-year gap. That's for the record books, but people keep bringing them up. I don't think this team has any hang-ups about the 45-year gap or losing five semi-finals - we just happened to get beaten in the five of them."

Having won the sixth, they've arrived. In the eyes of some, they may have made their move too late. As a team they've been good enough to contest All-Ireland finals for most of this decade, but there's been a lot of zeal expended and sheer wear-and-tear in clattering against the glass ceiling without breaking through.

One of the fascinating aspects of this match will be the effect on Waterford of finally staying on their feet until September. The failure to reach the last two and the great ceremonial occasion that is All-Ireland day had preyed more and more on opinion within the county.

For all of their achievements, the team hadn't managed to contest a final, and that became a matter of regret but significantly at a time - amidst the turmoil of Justin McCarthy's departure - when all hope of actually winning the big prize appeared to have evaporated.

Now that they're in the final, can the Waterford players focus on it as a great opportunity that looked to have permanently passed them by, or does it become fatalistically - and fatally - an achievement in itself?

Comparisons have been made with Wexford's successful raid on the All-Ireland in 1996, but there are more differences than similarities.

In those pre-qualifier days Wexford couldn't get out of the province for nearly 20 years; Waterford have failed to escape from Munster only three times in 11 years.

Over that period - in fact, during the past two years - Waterford have beaten everyone except Kilkenny at some stage. Reaching next weekend has been arduous.

Wexford breezed out of Leinster 12 years ago and, like Clare a year previously, brilliantly rode the momentum to sweep away the All-Ireland from Galway and Limerick teams with greater experience at that level. That's a different template to Waterford's, which has involved three provincial titles, one National League and five unsuccessful All-Ireland semi-finals.

Wexford manager Liam Griffin stirred up the hype and exploited it shrewdly, engaging with both the media and the public and praising both his players and the county's great hurling tradition.

Waterford, under their manager of three months, David Fitzgerald, have been doing the reverse, trying to keep the racket down and walking on eggshells whenever the coup against Fitzgerald's predecessor Justin McCarthy is mentioned.

For the players it's just another big match in Croke Park where they're well used to playing in front of big crowds; it's just the occasion that's different.

There have also been faint echoes of 10 years ago, the season when, ironically, Fitzgerald's Clare were locked in controversy with Waterford. More pertinently, that was the season Offaly mounted their own coup against Michael Keating before going on to win the All-Ireland under the hastily-appointed Michael Bond.

Then again, that Offaly team had already won an All-Ireland and just needed the light touch provided by the new manager, as they knew where to take it from there.

Maybe a more encouraging precedent is that of the Armagh footballers, who had already won a couple of Ulster titles and lost All-Ireland semi-finals - after a replay in the case of Kerry in 2000 - before Joe Kernan took charge and led them the final steps of the way.

But Armagh hadn't stacked up the same record of frustrating defeats, nor acquired a reputation for falling short against teams they could have beaten - both of the county's semi-final defeats were at the hands of favourites who subsequently won the All-Ireland, whereas all five of Waterford's last-four conquerors went on to lose the final.

It's not easy finding a precedent that suits Waterford's situation going into Sunday, but perhaps Aidan Moran is right and history is over-rated. Best to make your own, and Waterford at last have that opportunity.