RUGBY:If Ireland allow Wales to play for most of the 80 minutes then the Welsh will win, writes LIAM TOLAND
GIVING 13 penalties to Scotland is one thing, but doing likewise to the Welsh would be madness. Every penalty conceded will afford Wales at least two minutes on the ball. Two by 13 equals 26 minutes, or over one full quarter of play handed to the Welsh. That’s nearly three sinbins in one match. Ah, but won’t the penalties balance out? Unfortunately not thus far. Get over it, professional players.
Apart from penalties, the key difference between these Celtic sides this championship is in the Welsh DNA, which compels the Taffs to get the ball to their talisman. At all cost Lionel Andrés “Leo” Messi (Shane Williams) will be given the ball, and when they are in the mood they’ll accompany the ball with space to exploit or fatties to expose. He loves fatties!
Far too seldom have Ireland managed to manufacture and execute these opportunities in the proper end of the pitch. My concern from Edinburgh’s important win remains: does our ambition extend to getting the ball into Ronan O’Gara’s hands and not to some of the best attacking players on the planet?
As always when Wales are at their best they flow around the pitch in beautiful symmetry. At their best, as they were for periods against Scotland, they attack on all fronts at great pace. A pace we have only shown glimpses of. Aligned with this pace comes a defence’s nightmare: varied points of attack.
Regardless of Warren Gatland and his management’s opinions, this Welsh team react very differently with James Hook on the tiller. He energises even their most wooden players. Hook, like Isa Nacewa, is totally at ease in traffic or space. When the mood takes them they can all go one way or switch down the blindside with or without Hook. This makes defending very difficult. Hook starts brilliantly but I’m not sure even he knows what he’s about to do! Off-the-top ball is his ultimate ally and in the opening quarter he must get none; keep the ball out of touch.
Crucially, the Welsh have the hunger and ability to ignore either outhalf when the space dictates. After 69 minutes and yet another sloppy Scottish pass, this time from Nikki Walker to Allan Jacobson, Wales burst away. Hard-working Ryan Jones arrives at the breakdown and immediately acts as scrumhalf, popping from the base to Jonathan Davies, who provides for Messi’s try. Would we have peeled around the fringe?
They have huge variety (ironically predictable), especially from target runners Jamie Roberts and Davies. Not to mention Lee Byrne’s lines from fullback. Then throw in little Williams and an ever-developing backrow.
Last week I suggested a very sticky affair, but this week I suggest a slight margin on Wales to win. If this is to be true then Ireland’s next seven days will be very tough.
However, the Welsh have not dominated the championship because during the “boring” parts of the game there is no unity of effort in the Welsh team. Against England, Wales had about four good phases of play. Against Scotland, after 20 minutes they lost interest.
At their worst they are a bunch of individuals who lack any discipline of tactics or talent, and as Hook runs out of steam they become rudderless.
The key for Ireland is to limit penalties and shut down of Hook in the opening quarter.
That said, with a flow of ball Wales still have it, so how to counter that threat? Starve them of the ball and they will fail to engage. As off-the-top ball is their oxygen, Ireland need to sacrifice the front and get Paul O’Connell and Jamie Heaslip into the aerial zones. Kick the tram tracks, and long. Force the scrum away from Hook.
If this fails, as it will at times, then the Irish defence, especially around the 10 channel, must double-team the carriers.
Clearly this brings the penalty count up as, thus far, the Irish haven’t been disciplined enough to let go of the 50:50. In letting go the referee will be happy, but Hook lives on the gain line and he’ll have plenty of options from quicker ball. This is highly dangerous.
For instance, lock Bradley Davies (the new Brad Thorne) powers on to the ball on the hour and steals five metres for Morgan Stoddart scores. I know he’s on the bench, but I like Stoddart.
With England in mind, a strong counter-ruck by one Irish defender (force multiplier) ignoring the ball will limit the penalties and force more Welsh to the breakdown.
In summary, I like the look of the Welsh, even depleted. If Ireland allow Wales to play for most of the 80 minutes then the Welsh will win.
Of course, all the above depends on the performance of South African Jonathan Kaplan, so who knows!
Finally, the arrival of Lent and a new Government coincided with my intention to give up on scrummaging, the scrum clock, referee’s interpretations of the scrum and all things frontrow. What a sacrifice!
That was until Cashel RFC 3rds rolled up to Rosbrien last Saturday for the Webb Cup against Old Crescent. Once again I found myself in the backrow, avoiding many dangerous aspects of the modern game. A Cashel player who shall remain nameless produced two of the finest plays I’ve seen.
First, as our scrumhalf was sweeping the ball away from a breakdown, our opponent dives clean over the ruck to knock the ball out of his hands; instant yellow card? No, as he managed to convince the referee he had never heard of that rule! Second, he upended our soaring secondrow in the lineout by running under him. This time his protestations didn’t save him and off he went for 10 minutes.
Unbelievably, on our next scrum put-in all verbal hell broke loose. The Cashel boys, more au fait with the rules than I, protested at our having a full backrow. The referee agreed and, although they had a man in the sinbin, not only had we to balance out the numbers we were not allowed a number eight to control the ball. Unbelievable, but true!
