Circumstances can conspire at the Curragh today to give the Newmarket maestro Michael Stoute his second Irish Group One success in a week through Whitewater Affair in the final Irish classic of the season, the Jefferson Smurfit Memorial Irish St Leger.
Pilsudski's Irish Champion Stakes victory was the sort of truly run, no excuses necessary operation that brooked no argument but this afternoon's race looks a different matter.
The market is likely to be dominated by last year's winner Oscar Schindler and the former English Leger and Ascot Gold Cup winner Classic Cliche, who bounced back to winning form by winning at Deauville last time. On the form that saw Classic Cliche run second to Pentire in last year's King George and Oscar Schindler run Pilsudski close for second in last October's Arc, these two should have it between them - but it's not as easy as that.
Frankie Dettori's mount hasn't looked the same doughty, topclass stayer of last season all through this term and struggled to beat what in all honesty were inferior opposition in France. In contrast, Oscar Schindler has run only three times, opening up with blinding effort behind Dance Design in the Rogers Gold Cup followed by a complete flop when a distant last to Singspiel in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. To his credit, Oscar Schindler performed much better on his reappearance when third to Rayouni and King Alex in the Royal Whip and will be much more at home over today's mile and six.
Against that, however, is the suspicion that he will find this officially "yielding to soft" ground deeper than ideal, a comment that could also be applied to Classic Cliche and four of the five others. What is more than a suspicion is that all bar one of the seven runners are horses who ideally like to get a lead in their races.
The exception on both counts is Whitewater Affair and in what could easily develop into a tactical race, she is napped to become the first British-trained winner of an Irish classic since Matiya in last year's 1,000 Guineas.
Whitewater Affair is a filly that has always looked suited by give in the ground and has never been better than she is now. Under today's pilot John Reid, Whitewater Affair tried to make all the running in the Yorkshire Oaks and was only headed close home by the impressive My Emma, who is as low at 7 to 1 for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. That fine run had been prefaced by an easy Group Two win at Deauville when Whitewater Affair again made all to win over a mile and five and in retrospect, a meritorious third to Predappio and Pilsudski on soft ground in the Harwicke.
On that evidence, today's trip will be no problem, something that can hardly be said as definitely about the sponsor's hope, Stage Affair, nor Family Tradition who will be bidding to become Aidan O'Brien's fourth Irish classic winner this season.
With that in mind, and also how her opposition would ideally like a lead, Reid should have a relatively untroubled passage to the front of the field where he can concentrate on setting a pace that suits Whitewater Affair. Judged on her Deauville and York races, the filly looks well capable of stretching for home before the turn in and challenging the others to catch her.
Oscar Schindler looks the one most likely to try hardest but at odds of around 7 to 1, Whitewater Affair looks a value bet to repel him. The other Group race on the card, the Aon MacDonagh Boland Stakes, sees five of the eight runners travelling from British stables and it looks like the concerted effort can pay off courtesy of Deadly Dudley who Michael Kinane rides for Richard Hannon.
A very smart juvenile last season, Deadly Dudley has only run once this term and should be a comparatively fresh animal. That one run wasn't too bad either and Deadly Dudley may not have to improve too much from that fifth to Occupandiste in the Group One Maurice du Gheest at Deauville to beat the admirable Wizard King, who is trying for career win number 17 here.
Khairabar may not be much of a price in the Blessington Race but if John Oxx's horse can reproduce the form of his second to Stage Affair over this course and distance last month, he will be a very tough opponent for the likes of Munif and Theatreworld. It looks worth betting that he will be too tough.
Oxx and stable jockey John Murtagh could also hit the scoreboard courtesy of Renge in the EBF Handicap, although the filly will have to improve from her last winning effort in an apprentice race at Galway. She does look a type to do so however and while she has her share of weight, Renge can beat Michael Grassick's Tertia.
The Kildare Hotel and Country Club Maiden could be the contest that sees Mempari finally put her head in front while Jim Bolger's Stefka will find the six furlongs of the Paribas Bank Handicap ideal and should have too much speed for Zankle.
