People who claim luck plays no part in international selection have clearly never spoken to Mike Catt and Charlie Hodgson, the two men responsible for keeping England's midfield on the straight and narrow against New Zealand in the first Test this Saturday. One has led a charmed international life, the other the precise opposite, but now the fickle finger of fate is beckoning the pair simultaneously.
Clive Woodward, who has made seven changes in total, did not quite say as much yesterday having recalled Catt for the first time since the World Cup and installed the fit-again Hodgson at outhalf but, in Jonny Wilkinson's absence, England have effectively plumped for a spread bet.
In a tight physical game on a potentially dark and stormy night in Dunedin, Woodward needs some insurance should the All Blacks go after Hodgson, and Catt has filled that role expertly in the past, notably in the wet World Cup semi-final against France.
If such a limited set of selection criteria is harsh on the in-form Stuart Abbott, who would surely have replaced the absent Will Greenwood in a less tin-hat environment, you can see Woodward's thought process. He rightly suspects this weekend's game will boil down to basics and wants "battle-hardened people" at a venue where England were thumped 64-22 in 1998.
The coach is also taking a calculated risk, given that Catt has played barely any rugby for Bath this year and has spent only 17 previous minutes at Hodgson's elbow, against Romania three years ago when the final score was a ridiculous 134-0.
To judge by the demeanour of his contrasting new midfield diamonds at England's hotel, however, Woodward's hunch may yet be rewarded. If Catt, who will play at centre, and Hodgson have anything in common it is a heightened desire to take chances when they offer themselves, and the former, who would surely not have made the World Cup squad had Hodgson not been recovering from knee surgery, is desperate to show Bath he is not a spent force.
The 32-year-old Catt even requested his new club London Irish be appended to his name in today's papers, conclusive proof his 12-year stint at the Rec ended unhappily. He is reluctant to spell it out ("I could tell you a whole lot of stuff") and chooses his words with exaggerated care ("I feel like Bill Clinton") but cannot quite suppress his principal allegation that certain Bath employees informed the world he was unfit when he was fine.
"There hasn't been a problem with me over the past two to three months," he said. "Whatever has been said at the club has been said but I know I'm physically up to it."
So, instead of retiring in a fit of pique after 63 caps, he is now committed to the role of old dog teaching his younger team-mates some of the tricks he has learnt since his first brush with the All Blacks, not least Jonah Lomu, during England's sobering 1995 World Cup semi-final.
Hodgson, whose last cap came against Italy 15 months ago, is equally aware of the stakes. "I've had a rough time through injury and I see this as a bit of a reward for all the hard work I've put in."
Catt and Hodgson make a slightly odd couple but, assuming England's forwards can get a grip, Woodward's calculated match-making may yet pay off.
ENGLAND: Lewsey; Simpson-Daniel, Tindall, Catt, Cohen; Hodgson, Dawson; Dallaglio (captain), Hill, Jones, Grewcock, Shaw, White, Thompson, Woodman. Replacements: Regan, Stevens, Borthwick, Worsley, Gomarsall, Abbott, Voyce.
Guardian Service
