When national leaders gather on Thursday for the start of a two-day summit in Brussels, much of the talk will be about Ursula von der Leyen who, barring a late surprise, will be backed for a second term as European Commission president.
It is on the margins of the 27 EU leaders’ discussions that the chat will turn to the most pressing issue for most: what job can their state secure in the carve up that comes after the top positions are settled? Ireland, of course, is putting forward Minister for Finance Michael McGrath as its candidate for EU commissioner.
At an informal meeting of leaders last week, von der Leyen was proposed for a further five years in the powerful role she holds as head of the commission. This is part of an agreement that would see Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas become the EU’s next foreign affairs chief and former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa take over as European Council president. While the vote to sign off on the senior roles was always going to take place this week, the negotiations have not been without hiccups.
Right-wing Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni was said to be fuming at the manner in which von der Leyen, Kallas and Costa were sprung as a done deal to leaders. Meloni, whose group of hard-right and populist parties made significant gains in the recent European elections, is angling for a big commissioner portfolio for Italy.
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If von der Leyen is waived through by national leaders, she will then need the backing of a majority of MEPs in the European Parliament. That vote, expected to be tight, is planned for July. If the German politician is successful there, she will build her cabinet of commissioners from candidates nominated by member states.
Now that the Government has settled on McGrath as its pick to be the next Irish commissioner, the horse trading will begin over what portfolio the Fianna Fáil politician will be given. Ireland has made it known that it is interested in a finance brief. Possible positions in that area include commissioners for the economy, competition, jobs, trade, the internal market, the EU budget or financial services. Others believed to be in the hunt for a finance-orientated portfolio include Austria and the Netherlands, as well as big beasts such as France and Italy.
Ireland is unlikely to be let near a portfolio that focuses on taxation or tech regulation, given the country is an outlier on corporate tax and has a heavy concentration of tech giants in Dublin. Mairead McGuinness, the outgoing Irish commissioner, had the financial services job. That would be a fit, but there is a reluctance to let a country keep the same portfolio for consecutive terms.
Deciding who gets what job is a tricky balancing act that takes into account country size, influence, geography and political affiliation. There are a few factors going against McGrath landing a decent finance-related brief. One is Fianna Fáil’s four MEPs stating they will not support von der Leyen in the crunch European Parliament confirmation vote, something she is unlikely to forget.
Renew, the political group Fianna Fáil belongs to in Europe, had a bad election overall. Significant losses for Emmanuel Macron in France meant it has limped back to the negotiating table with much reduced bargaining power. It is also possible that von der Leyen will ask member states to send her two candidates for commissioner, a man and a woman, which would put the Government in an awkward position. Against all that, the fact McGrath would be coming to Brussels as a former finance minister would help the argument for him to get a role in that area.
Other countries have been on manoeuvres to secure decent commission portfolios for weeks, if not months. Spain is seeking an expanded climate commissioner job, with minister for ecological transition Teresa Ribera its candidate. France’s Thierry Breton, current commissioner for the internal market, had been talked about as a candidate for a new defence brief, but bigger countries have since cooled on that role, over concerns it will be less weighty than initially expected.
Longevity can be currency in Brussels, with some smaller countries doing well by sticking with the same commissioner, term after term. Maros Sefcovic, who has been Slovakia’s commissioner since 2009, is being put forward for another term. Having been trusted to lead Brexit talks for the EU in recent years and later look after the green deal climate reforms, he is likely to be in line for an influential position. Similarly Valdis Dombrovskis, the Latvian commissioner holding the trade portfolio, is being nominated for a third term.
The delicate house of cards of back-room deals being struck to try to pre-emptively line up who will get what is based on von der Leyen heading the commission. If she were to be backed by the leaders but then fail to win the support of parliament, the whole thing might need to be put back together from scratch.