The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has proposed a seat capacity limit on airlines with slots at Dublin Airport next summer as the aviation hub continues to grapple with a 32 million limit on annual passenger traffic imposed almost two decades ago.
In its draft decision on next summer’s scheduling season, which runs from the end of March 2025 to October, the regulator on Thursday proposed a seat capacity limit of 25.2 million for next summer.
If implemented, it would be the second consecutive flight scheduling season in which capacity growth at the airport has been curtailed as it struggles to keep under the cap imposed by An Bord Pleanála in 2007, when it first granted planning permission for the new north runway.
DAA, the State-owned operator of Dublin Airport, has made a planning application to Fingal County Council to have the cap increased to 40 million but the process has been hit with delays, pushing out the decision to an indeterminate date.
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In the meantime, DAA said last week it will likely breach the 32 million upper limit on passenger traffic this year by about 1 million passengers amid record-breaking demand for air travel, putting it in breach of planning law.
Against this backdrop in May, the IAA for the first time introduced a 14.4 million seat capacity limit at the airport for the winter 2024 season, from October 2024 to March 2025. Aer Lingus and Ryanair have said the IAA’s decision will limit their ability to grow capacity this winter and expand their route networks.
DAA, meanwhile, said the winter capacity limits did not go far enough to prevent a breach of the cap and has challenged the IAA’s decision in the High Court, where the case will be heard in December.
On Thursday the IAA said it does not expect the situation to change heading into next summer with demand likely to “significantly exceed” the existing 32 million passenger limit again next year.
The regulator’s latest capacity limit proposal, which will be finalised in consultation with stakeholders over the coming weeks, would mean the total seat limit for the two periods is 39.6 million, 7.6 million above the 32 million passenger cap set down in planning law.
“The seat cap is greater than the passenger cap as it takes account of expected load factors (how many passengers are expected on each flight relative to the total number of seats on the aircraft) and an adjustment for transfer passengers,” the IAA said.
In its draft decision on Thursday, the IAA said it does not have any power to amend or revoke planning conditions, “which are all matters to be determined by the planning authorities, such as Fingal County Council”.
However, it said that if the 25.2 million seat capacity limit is put in place, it “would result in very little, if any, available capacity for new slot requests, or for ad hoc slot requests, for passenger flights”. This outcome “and its implications for airlines, Dublin Airport and the travelling public” stems from the planning condition itself, the IAA said.
On Thursday DAA said it welcomes the draft decision but understands how disappointing it will be for airlines looking to expand capacity at Dublin Airport.
“But we totally get that losing significant seats from the summer 2025 schedule has real consequences for airlines, people working at the airport and the travelling public, as well as knock-on impacts on tourism, jobs and the wider economy,” said the airport operator’s chief executive Kenny Jacobs. “Absolutely no one wants that, but we are between a rock and a hard place.”
Mr Jacobs said DAA must support the regulator’s decision until Fingal County Council reaches a planning decision on the passenger cap.
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