Dublin Airport’s passenger limit risks getting sucked into the EU-US trade war as North American airlines prepare to meet the Government to discuss the situation next week.
The Coalition pledged to work to end the 32 million a-year cap on passengers in the programme for government following election commitments made by both Government parties.
Industry group, Airlines for America (A4A), some of whose members fly from the US and Canada to Dublin, will meet Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien next week to discuss Government efforts.
However, sources have not ruled out the risk that the airlines could formally complain to the US government about the cap, which the organisation says breaches EU-North American air travel treaties.
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Such a complaint could prompt the US department of transportation to take reciprocal action against Irish or even European airlines, possibly limiting their access to airports there.
Industry figures say this could drag the ongoing Dublin Airport row into current tensions between Washington and the EU over US president Donald Trump’s tariff threats, sparked by what he argues is Europe’s unfair, anticompetitive treatment of US business.
Last December A4A noted that if the cap resulted in “competitive harm or competitive discrimination” to members, that would give US carriers grounds for a fair trade practices complaint to their government.
At that point, A4A said it believed the issue could be resolved without resorting to this, particularly as both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had pledged to axe the cap during the previous month’s election campaign.
A4A argued at the time that carriers, such as Aer Lingus, could launch new transatlantic routes from Dublin having cut European services to comply with the cap.
US airlines do not have this option as they only fly into Dublin, putting them at a disadvantage.
A4A joined a legal challenge to the cap by Aer Lingus and Ryanair late last year.
This resulted in the High Court referring key questions to the EU courts and suspending the implementation of the limit from the end of this month, pending the outcome of both hearings.
The American industry group is due to meet Mr O’Brien and representatives of Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris on Monday.
The Department of Transport confirmed that the Minister had begun meeting interested parties in an effort to lift the passenger cap.
Meanwhile, passenger numbers at Dublin Airport could top 35.6 million this year and approach 37 million in 2026, assuming the High Court stay remains in place.
Kenny Jacobs, chief executive of airport operator DAA, believes it could take planners until 2029 to ultimately decide on the company’s application to lift the cap to 40 million and for permission to extend Dublin’s facilities.
“By then airlines’ requirement could be 40 million, so we will have to start all over again,” he pointed out.
DAA lodged the application with Fingal County Council in December 2023. The council is likely to rule next year, but that will face an appeal and then possibly a judicial review.
Mr Jacobs pointed out that the planning process, which could provide the clearest resolution to the airport cap row, simply takes too long.
The airport company is also waiting for An Bord Pleanála to issue its finding on night-time flights from the north runway, which is likely later this year.
The appeals board received a large number of submissions to its draft finding on this issue, which it published in September.
