“Make American Vacations Great Again” – a phrase that does not yet exist but which offers an uncomfortable vista for Irish tourism in a year already beset by storm clouds.
On the road from Wexford to Fáilte Ireland’s annual flagship Meitheal conference in Killarney, Co Kerry, Sean Connick, who runs the Dunbrody Famine Ship Experience, considers the various threats to his business.
Some are very much a reality – rising costs and declining national visitor numbers – and some are yet to materialise, such as the economic fallout from trade warfare.
“We are very exposed now to the North America and Canadian market,” Connick says.
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“That was always going to be a concern and I think we’re seeing that maybe starting to unfold this year a bit with the geopolitical uncertainty and now visitor numbers down 25 per cent in January and 30 per cent in February.”
In fact, Central Statistics Office data has shown a continued and deepening decline since last summer – numbers began falling by 0.7 per cent in September, and have accelerated since then. Connick says visitors to his business have dipped in almost perfect sync.
Operators flag other difficulties too – commonly, the mounting cost pressures of minimum wage increments and VAT. Since 2024, Connick says he has had to find an extra €148,000 and €45,000 respectively to meet those demands. He employs 31 people between the Famine Ship Experience and the Kennedy Homestead. Raising prices, he says, is not an option.
Then, there is the tariff problem, the trauma of which is already reflected in the financial markets. In the context of challenging times, Connick believes it important to watch the tone of public discourse on the US.
“The American market is hugely important to us. They spend a lot of money when they come here,” he says.
“The worry for me is there might be a follow up on protectionism where Americans are encouraged to holiday at home. That could be catastrophic for the Irish tourism market.”
Much of the unease in the sector is likely to reverberate around Meitheal, the conference prized by industry for linking Irish offerings with international buyers and tour operators. Celebrating its 50th year, the two day event facilitates deals between 389 tourism providers and 255 international buyers. Spreading Destination Ireland’s appeal around geographically is considered key.
Whether US citizens might begin to favour “staycations”, there is no sign of it yet, according to Paul Keeley, Fáilte Ireland’s director of regional development, reflecting on recent conversations with buyers.
“If there is any anxiety coming into this event from the industry’s perspective, it probably is that strong reliance on the North American marketplace,” he says.
“We’ve had a strong dollar and that has certainly been a boon for us over the last number of years. Obviously, with the storm clouds gathering, there is an anxiety that, quite aside from having a growing proportion of your business coming from North America, if we see the dollar weakening or we see any shift in sentiment among Americans about travelling and feeling welcome if they travel etc. Any of those kind of things would be a worry.”
According to Keeley, sentiment on visitor numbers remains mixed. It is early days and more data is required to fully interpret the state of play.
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Nuala Mulqueeney, managing director of the Aillwee Burren Experience in Co Clare, has lined up over 40 meetings during this week’s Meitheal conference. Having first taken visitors into their cave system in 1976 and expanding to cheese making and other offerings since the 1980s, they know all about industry change.
“We are always cautious in this business because you never know what’s around the next turn,” Mulqueeney says – volcano ash clouds, pandemics and even the once-thought-existential threat of Sunday shopping all come to mind.
But while also raising minimum wage pressures and VAT, Stateside issues are not something lost on a business operating in the West of Ireland. Many visitors to Aillwee are connected to the US multinationals in the area.
“If things like that are taken from us there will be a hit. There’s no doubt about it. And the spending power of even the locals that are working in those factories,” Mulqueeney says.
“Here in north Clare, we would be surrounded with a lot of American medical device factories [and] in both Galway and Limerick.
There “isn’t a house in the region”, she says, not connected to tourism or US multinationals.
