Have you ever tried to catch a knife? Or juggled several at the same time? Thankfully most of us haven’t played such foolish games, but recent geopolitical events can make us feel like we are or we’re just frozen and powerless.
The insanity of the Trump regime’s tariffs, ongoing threats to jobs and the turn to authoritarianism in the US have left the world blinking in confusion. As a leader, manager or employee it is right to be worried about your future and your organisation’s prospects as Ireland, the US and the global economy are intrinsically linked.
Biting our nails as we watch America’s hyperspeed car crash won’t accomplish anything though. So how do we overcome the paralysis and get moving?
Change is the only thing that is constant in business, and naturally there’s a formula or framework designed to help you navigate it. For many years a lesson on managing in a Vuca (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) environment was on every MBA and leadership programme curriculum. The Vuca acronym was first used by the US army war college in the 1980s to help them in the fog of war.
Perhaps a new framework is needed now to describe the “Is this Real?” nature of the world today? I suggest Chaos (complexity, hubris, anxiety, Orwell and surprise) and outline some coping strategies for each here.
Nothing is straightforward in this moment but it’s important as a team not to be pushed off your path. Clarity, communication, character and culture are your way finders.
Clarity. To start take a few deep breaths together and look at your strategy. If it is still valid in the current situation then it should guide all you do. If it’s not then think about the purpose of your company long term and realign your strategy instead of being overly distracted by short-term pressures.
Communication. In turbulent times the temptation is to manage problems instead of managing people. This leads to reactionary behaviours, which are exhausting for everyone, instead of strategic, proactive behaviours that give everyone energy and focus. Even though you, as a leader, are confused and anxious, you need to start communicating more with your team, not less.
Character. Fear and leadership go hand in hand and, whether you like it or not, your team will role model your behaviours. Retired US army general Stanley McChrystal says “When our leaders abandon character it does more than set a poor example. It accelerates decay. It tells people that principles are optional, that decency is weakness, that rules are for fools.”
Culture. In business our rules are our culture, which some define as the worst behaviour we allow. If you start to let things slide – in yourself or others – then the fear and anxiety will only increase. People crave leaders who role model and communicate well during chaos as this enforces cultural norms and healthy boundaries. When we feel psychologically safe then we can settle and start to think clearly again. Ask yourself: how am I helping or hindering the team to navigate the complexity?
Hubris is an exaggerated pride or self-confidence. It’s the age of political hubris but don’t be sucked in by the arrogance and hype. Just because you believe something doesn’t make it true. If you feel in your gut that your company will survive the storm but haven’t done anything about it then you’re delusional. A wing and a prayer does not work on the battlefield and it will not work in a Chaos world.
Scan the environment and make a plan. Successful organisations are vigilant and well informed on market conditions and use live knowledge to develop strategic actions. As the environment changes you need to tweak your responses. Ask yourself: is my hesitation fear or a strategy?
Anxiety is fear of loss. So work hard not to lose what you value most. One of the best ways to alleviate fear and to maintain focus on what you can control is through extensive scenario planning.
Start with the absolute worst possible result for you – “Scenario A: my company goes under, I go bankrupt, lose our home and never work again” – and move towards other outcomes. Scenario B should focus on bizarre, extreme and unprecedented events. After that, Scenario C will feel like a delight: “We reduce costs and minimise job losses. I take a cut in salary and the company freezes bonuses.”
As you continue towards the positive you’ll actually start to see opportunities in the Chaos. Scenario F might be: “We secure new markets, develop innovative new products and upskill our workforce to avoid job losses.”
Once you land on scenarios that you can actually control it’s time to update the strategy and move towards making that best possible scenario a reality.
Newspeak, a term coined by George Orwell in his dystopian novel 1984, is deliberately ambiguous and deceptive language used to control thought and limit our range of expression. It is characterised by eliminating words or altering their meanings, using euphemisms, and blurring the lines between different parts of speech. The purpose of Newspeak is to make it difficult for individuals to express dissent or formulate independent thoughts so they’re more easily controlled.
We are living in Orwell’s world now. Tariffs, liberation day, patriots, collateral damage, illegals are all terms being used to fit a political agenda or used for political purposes with loaded connotations.
Ask yourself: are we buying into Newspeak or using the terms ourselves?
Trump has always excelled in the art of misdirection and surprise – like an old-school “confidence man”, trickster, carnival barker or magician – forcing you to look at smoke and mirrors while leaving your pockets ripe to be picked. The distraction of “Tadah. Surprise!” pushes our brains too much towards the little things so we miss the big picture.
However, surprise can also be a powerful leadership tool. Imagine you’re the captain of a boat and surrounded suddenly by fog. Some of your instruments are working but others aren’t. It’s natural to want more data before you act. But in a Chaos environment that’s not usually possible.
More data can actually overwhelm as it produces passivity, mission creep and hesitation, according to Harvard Business Review Vuca researchers Angus Fletcher, Thomas L. Gaines and Brittany Loney.
Instead of seeking more data they suggest active questioning that surfaces exceptional information through a simple technique: delay asking why?
“Instead prioritise What, Who, When, Where, How – focusing on answers that trigger surprise. That surprise is an indicator of exceptions that press the brain to develop new rules and judgments. The more of those exceptions that can be gathered and held simultaneously in view, the more effectively a leader can imagine new futures.”
Margaret E. Ward is chief executive of Clear Eye, a leadership consultancy. margaret@cleareye.ie
