As new car industry forecasts claim diesel power may make up 28 per cent of world sales by 2015, the premium on new diesels cars in Ireland continues to hinder its growth here.
According to the latest automotive forecast by researchers JD Power-LMC, global diesel light-vehicle sales will rise from 12.5 million in 2003 to 27 million by 2015, with 60 per cent of the growth coming from outside Europe. While diesel sales in Europe, Asia and South America are expected to continue to grow at a steady pace, a significant increase of diesel sales is anticipated in North America.
In Ireland, diesel sales have languished at 17 per cent, up only 4 per cent since 1998 having dipped to 10 per cent in 2000. This may be due to the premium price on new diesel cars, which carry at least a 5 per cent higher price than their petrol equivalent. With an estimated average annual mileage in Ireland of 15,000 miles, for many Irish motorists the premium in price outweighs the benefits of better fuel consumption.
There are exceptions however, with BMW offering its new 530 diesel version at the same price as its petrol equivalent, while several other manufacturers have hinted towards more equivalence in the pricing of new models in the future.
According to Alastair Bedwell, research manager for LMC Automotive Services: "We expect diesel cars and trucks to comprise as much as 16 per cent of new light-vehicle sales in North America within the next 12 years." Diesels made up 4.5 per cent of car and light truck sales in North America is 2002.
According to the forecast report, strong demands for diesel cars in India and South Korea are behind the expected growth in Asia. The Japanese and Chinese car markets should see moderate increases in diesel-powered vehicles, though they will be among the last markets to experience diesel penetration.
Bedwell notes that fuel efficiency remains significantly better in diesels. Earlier expectations that direct-injection petrol engines would erode this advantage have not materialised, and such hopes have been largely abandoned as further gains in diesel fuel-efficiency have been made. At the same time, diesels retain significant advantages in torque, and their earlier deficiencies in terms of emissions, maximum power and noise are close to being eliminated, though at a cost.
