French foreign minister Laurent Fabius's initiative was considered the last hope of reviving the dead "peace process" between Israel and Palestinians. It was always a long shot that he would succeed where 22 years of US-led negotiations failed.
Mr Fabius's plan to field a resolution at the UN Security Council in late September took a battering from Israeli prime minister Binjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Sunday night. Yesterday, the French foreign minister briefed his European counterparts on his trip to Cairo, Amman, Ramallah and Jerusalem.
A draft version of the resolution would set an 18-month deadline for completing negotiations on a “two-state solution”. It would make Jerusalem the capital of both states, and provide compensation for Palestinian refugees who could not return to Israel. An international “follow-up committee” comprised of Arab and European security council members would oversee negotiations.
Recognition
If negotiations failed, the French government would recognise the state of Palestine. Although some dozen European parliaments have voted recognition, only three EU governments – Sweden, Malta and Cyprus – have done so.
"France has no vocation to play Don Quixote," Mr Fabius said in Jerusalem, admitting the difficulties of his initiative. There was "no guarantee" of success. France had to be "realistic" and refrain from "sowing illusions", he said.
Mr Netanyahu said Israel would “strongly reject” all attempts by the international community to “dictate” to it. “Peace cannnot be imposed from the outside,” he told a press conference. “The Palestinians don’t want to negotiate. They won’t make an effort if they think the international community is going to give them what they want without negotiations.”
Libération newspaper labelled Mr Fabius's weekend journey "a diplomatic flop".
US secretary of state John Kerry gave up his own initiative in exasperation in April 2014.
"Mr Obama understood that the Israeli government's enthusiasm for continued peace talks . . . served no purpose other than to provide cover for Israel's continued expansion of Jewish settlements and to preclude the emergence of anything resembling a Palestinian state," Henry Siegman, former head of the American Jewish Congress and president of the US/Middle East Project wrote in the New York Times.
Mr Fabius's initiative is emblematic of the French strategy of stepping into the void left by the Obama administation in conflicts such as Libya, Mali and Syria, as well as Israel-Palestine.
Washington alienated Sunni Muslim Gulf monarchies in August 2013 by failing to punish Syrian president Bashar al-Assad for crossing the “red line” of using chemical weapons against his own people.
The Gulf Arabs are particularly upset about Washington's rapprochement with Shia Muslim Iran. Again, Paris has moved into the void, striking alliances with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-supported Egyptian regime. King Salman of Saudi Arabia recently cancelled a trip to Washington, shortly after President François Hollande was received royally in Riyad.
Mr Fabius sounded out the Americans before preparing his Palestinian resolution, hoping that the US would not veto it, as it has vetoed dozens of resolutions unpalatable to Israel.
The French foreign minister has been the most cautious negotiator of a nuclear deal with Iran, the final version of which should be completed by June 30th.
Now that nuclear deal could scupper Fabius’s attempts to make peace between Israel and Palestinians. “Israel is blackmailing America over the nuclear deal with Iran,” explains Avi Shlaim, emeritus professor of international relations at Oxford University and one of the “new historians” who have revolutionised understanding of the foundation of the state of Israel.
Mr Netanyahu has urged the US Congress to vote against an agreement with Iran, which would be President Obama's main foreign policy achievement. "Obama feels very vulnerable to Israeli pressure. He doesn't want a showdown with Netanyahu," Prof Shlaim says.
Veto
“If Fabius puts forward a resolution and it is passed by the Security Council, I now believe Obama will veto it. The Obama administration has just agreed to give Israel $1.9 billion to compensate it for a nuclear deal with Iran.”
In the circumstances, Mr Fabius may never table his resolution. “The big picture is that Israel is strong; the Palestinians are weak; the EU is ineffectual and the Americans are partial to Israel,” Prof Shlaim concludes. “There isn’t any prospect of moving forward in negotiations.”