When the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers greeted Boris Johnson with a traditional banging of desks on Tuesday evening it was, the connoisseurs of such moments outside the committee room door agreed, light to moderate in intensity rather than thunderous.
The prime minister had tried the patience of his MPs in recent weeks with the Owen Paterson sleaze debacle, a bizarre speech to business leaders referencing Peppa Pig, and a stream of revelations about lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street last year.
Now, dozens of backbenchers were threatening to defy the whip in opposition to Plan B, a modest set of restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the Omicron variant. The government had already bought some potential rebels off but the whips determined that other waverers needed to hear from the prime minister.
Johnson adopted the right tone, according to one MP who was in the room, asking them to consider the alternative to taking action now and the consequences of doing nothing to slow the spread of Omicron if the numbers going into hospital next month overwhelmed the NHS.
“The rebellion is haemorrhaging,” one loyalist said afterwards.
But dozens of hardcore rebels stayed away from the 1922 Committee and far from haemorrhaging, the revolt was gaining in strength as unhappy MPs found safety in numbers. Ninety-nine Conservative MPs voted against the government, along with two others who acted as tellers for the No side. Sixty-one Conservatives voted against compulsory vaccination for healthcare workers and 41 against face masks in shops and theatres.
The rebellion highlights the lack of trust that has grown between Johnson and MPs as they have tired of the disorderly and dysfunctional operation he presides over in Downing Street. More seriously, it limits the prime minister’s room for manoeuvre as Britain faces a “huge spike” in infections from the Omicron variant.
He promised on Tuesday to consult his MPs before introducing further restrictions but stopped short of saying he would recall parliament over Christmas to vote on any new measures. If the virus spreads so fast that it threatens to overwhelm hospital capacity, Johnson could face a choice between angering his MPs and failing the public.
Thursday sees a byelection in North Shropshire, a rural constituency that voted for Brexit where the Conservatives won a majority of almost 23,000 two years ago. Losing it would be a shock that would fuel questions among Conservative MPs about whether the leader they chose as an election winner has become a threat to their own survival.