Omicron will become the dominant coronavirus variant in Denmark this week, epidemiologists say, driving a rise in cases to record levels and offering a warning to the rest of Europe about the more transmissible mutation.
Cases in Denmark have surged, contributing to a record daily tally of Covid-19 infections, with some statisticians expecting Omicron to represent a majority of cases in the Scandinavian country by Tuesday or Wednesday.
The Omicron variant is now having a clear impact on case numbers in Denmark and the UK, the first evidence outside southern Africa of its ability to change the course of the pandemic. Epidemiologists say the two countries offer an early warning of how infections and hospital admission rates could spike across Europe this winter and show the need for effective booster programmes to be in place.
"Denmark is a frontrunner here. We were one of the first countries to have initial spreading domestically, but other countries in Europe will see the same," said Soren Riis Paludan, professor of biomedicine at Aarhus University.
Omicron is also expected to become the dominant strain in the UK by mid-December, the UK Health Security Agency has said, while it will represent a majority of cases in Norway just before Christmas.
Both Denmark and Norway are expecting Covid cases to far exceed previous peaks. Denmark’s health authority, which said it expected Omicron to become dominant this week, said daily cases could soon exceed 10,000. It reported 7,799 new cases on Monday, its highest daily figure of the pandemic, with cases doubling from the same day last week.
Double the peak
In Norway, health authorities warned that if no countermeasures were taken Omicron could infect up to 300,000 people a day compared with the previous peak of about 1,000 cases. Frode Forland, Norway's state epidemiologist, told the Financial Times that about 500 hospital admissions a day was a more realistic prediction, almost double the previous peak.
“It’s impossible to stop it. The strategy in Norway is to try to prolong the time period until it takes over. The situation is very serious now so we have to take urgent measures. There is an exponential increase in these cases,” he added. Norway’s centre-left government on Monday evening introduced a range of new restrictions including a ban on serving alcohol in bars and restaurants as well as asking the military to help with booster jabs.
Denmark and the UK both have sophisticated genetic sequencing operations, which have enabled them to detect Omicron and other variants before many other countries. Both countries are seeing rapid increases in Omicron infections unlike some other countries with high caseloads such as Germany.
Denmark has recorded 3,437 Omicron cases, authorities said on Monday, close to a doubling in the past two days. About 9 per cent of those infected with Omicron had received three doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, 75 per cent two doses, while 14 per cent were unvaccinated.
Thirty-seven people have been admitted to hospital with the variant in Denmark, with 28 of those testing positive before hospital admission or immediately afterwards and eight who were admitted for other reasons and then tested positive some days later. This is in stark contrast to admissions with other variants, where the vast majority of patients tested positive before admission, suggesting that a significant number of patients in the Omicron wave may test positive for Covid even if they are not being treated for it.
UK death
The UK recorded its first death of a patient with Omicron on Monday. Daily Covid case numbers have now surpassed their summer peak but are still below the record high from January. Health minister Sajid Javid told MPs on Monday there were now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK and he expected it to become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours.
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said UK cases of the Delta variant were rising at a slower rate than Omicron, meaning the latter was "going to take over, probably not this coming week, but almost certainly the following week".
He emphasised that in the week ending December 6th most of the growth in cases had been seen in under-60s in London. The UK capital reported 11,791 new cases on Monday, its highest figure since January. Infection rates are now doubling every week, the fastest rate of increase since July.
“I suspect that most of the growth that we’ve seen in the early part of this Omicron epidemic has been in low-vaccinated younger people in London,” said Hunter, suggesting that growth in infection rates may slow. “Once it starts spreading in older people, and in other parts of the country where they’ve got better booster vaccine rollout, I suspect that we’ll see a fairly marked decline in the reproduction rate,” he added.
Other European countries are still waiting to feel the full impact of Omicron. In France, there are signs that the pace of increase in the country's current fifth wave of infections is starting to slow but some health officials are warning that Omicron will drive an imminent sixth wave.
Cases in Switzerland, which has the worst vaccination rate in western Europe, have been rocketing since mid-November. But the latest publicly disclosed sequencing of tests, from December 3th, showed Omicron accounting for only 2.7 per cent of positive results. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2021
