Minority governments have shown they can last – in Ireland and elsewhere – but few have been assembled quite like the proposed Fine Gael-led administration. For both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and some independents, this will be a new experience and a bold experiment. But will it work? Few can yet be sure.
The relatively detailed agreement reached between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, following two months of intermittent negotiation, suggests that it could succeed as both parties have a stake in it doing so. And the State certainly needs the agreement to last given how much time has been lost in talks on government formation and the major challenges ahead. Not least is the urgent need for contingency planning for a possible Brexit outcome in next month’s UK referendum.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have made policy concessions to help ensure government formation. Fine Gael, in sealing the political deal, has had to concede far more and has paid a higher price; not least in agreeing to a temporary suspension of water charges which amounts to their effective abandonment. Fine Gael, it might seem, is leading a minority government to implement the mandate of other parties rather than its own.
Undoubtedly, Fianna Fáil can point to many of its policy priorities being reflected in the agreement; not just on water charges but also with cuts in the universal social charge benefitting middle and lower-income earners, and with the balance between tax cuts and spending increases tipped in favour of the latter. Fine Gael has retained office at the expense of power. Fianna Fáil, having balked at coalition with Fine Gael, has secured some power at the expense of office. And both their respective parliamentary parties have backed this agreement without dissent – an encouraging sign. No doubt Fianna Fáil is mindful that roles might be reversed in future. And the party might then need Fine Gael support to form a Fianna Fáil-led minority government.
The agreement between both parties ensures that in votes on confidence issues and financial measures, Fianna Fáil will either abstain or support Fine Gael. On budget matters, a reformed budgetary process should ensure less secrecy and mean fewer surprises on budget day. And to eliminate secret deals for voting support – a feature of past political arrangements – all agreements made with independents and other parties will be published in full. On public service pay and recruitment the acceptance of the full implementation of the Lansdowne Road agreement helps to defuse a potentially difficult issue.
Overall, the government will be obliged to secure a broader consensus in reaching decisions. But will the need to secure such support compromise its ability to take tough decisions and to provide effective government? How Fine Gael reconciles both objectives will be its greatest test.