As in the five previous contests, the outcome of Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a run-off after no candidate won a majority in Sunday’s voting. Former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came agonisingly close to outright victory on the first round, something not witnessed since 1998. His 48.43 per cent share of the vote left him just 1.57 per cent short, forcing him into a showdown on October 30th with far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro who came second with 43.2 per cent.
The growing expectation among Lula’s supporters during the campaign’s final stretch that he could confirm his return to the presidency on Sunday night means there is perhaps inevitably on the left a sense of anti-climax now that he has just missed out on doing so. But history still favours him. Since the return of democracy in the 1980s every candidate who topped the poll in the first round has gone on to take the presidency. But Sunday was undoubtedly a very good night for president Bolsonaro.
Opinion polls had shown him trailing Lula by double digits. In fact he came in just five points behind. By outperforming expectations he now goes into the four-week campaign ahead of the crucial final round with momentum, a powerful stimulant to add to his already shameless use of the state apparatus under his command for personal political ends. But while president Bolsonaro did better than predicted at capturing for himself the historically well-entrenched anti-Lula vote, the overall result did confirm polling that consistently shows a majority of Brazilians say they will not vote for him no matter what. This remains a major challenge he must overcome and probably explains why on Sunday night he refused to rule out fraud, despite no evidence and his better than expected showing.
It is an important reminder that the former army captain is not committed to fully constitutional methods in his quest to hold onto power. The stage is set for a fraught, highly polarised four weeks of campaigning in a country that appears increasingly split into two politically irreconcilable blocs.