Inside Politics: It is now more than two months since Ivor Callely resigned his junior ministerial post and the Taoiseach has still not made up his mind about who to appoint in his place. Such lengthy indecision, over a relatively minor political reshuffle, is causing exasperation among some Fianna Fáil backbenchers who cannot understand why it is taking so long.
One of the reasons for the delay is said to be the Taoiseach's desire to promote at least two backbenchers but to do that he needs to create a second vacancy. As there is an array of hopefuls with claims for promotion, based on strong credentials of experience, ability or geographical position, Mr Ahern would like to be in a position to promote more than one of them.
According to rumour he would be happy if the junior Minister at the Department of Education, Síle de Valera, made it easy for him and resigned her position, in the light of the fact that she will not be contesting the next general election. That would give him two vacancies to play around with.The problem is that Mr Ahern has not asked Ms de Valera to step down and she has made it clear that she has no intention of making it easy for him by offering to resign. The Taoiseach is perfectly entitled to remove her from office, with the approval of the Cabinet, but he is obviously loath to take that course of action. The result is stalemate.
Another factor in the equation is the apparent desire of Minister of State for the Marine Pat the Cope Gallagher to move to another post following all the controversy over the Sea Fisheries and Marine Jurisdiction Bill which has left him in an invidious position as a TD representing the biggest fishing port in the country at Killybegs. If there is only one vacant post at Transport it is likely to be taken by Mr Gallagher, with the newcomer filling his boots at Marine.
Why this should take two months to sort out is baffling and it raises an important question. If such a minor matter can take so long to sort out, what level of indecision is there at Government about more serious matters? Maybe it should be no surprise that the country is plagued with delays, cost overruns and waste.
For all that, the Taoiseach is widely regarded as a shrewd political operator. He didn't get to be leader of Fianna Fáil, to unite a divided party, and to win two elections in a row by being politically naive. It wasn't for nothing that his mentor, Charlie Haughey, described him as "the best, the most skilful, the most devious, the most cunning of them all". One of the oldest political tactics in the book is to avoid making a decision until it is absolutely necessary. Still, to take so long over one junior ministerial appointment does raise a troubling question over the Government's ability to govern.
If the same level of indecision applies to the current partnership talks and next year's election budget, the consequences for the country could be catastrophic in the long term. The partnership talks are critical because there are huge decisions to be made. The last national agreement and the benchmarking process were obviously biased in favour of the public service.
The Economic and Social Research Institute has called for a redressing of the balance in the next deal with very limited public service pay increases. However, all the pressure will be on Government to concede another round of pay and benchmarking increases to public servants. Given the close relationship between the Taoiseach and the trade union movement, and the inevitability of an election next year, the pressure to do another bad deal will be immense. If Mr Ahern is paralysed by indecision over a new junior minister, what will the position be on something serious like this?
One of the great advantages he has is that the Opposition appears just as incapable of giving leadership. Although the Fine Gael finance spokesman, Richard Bruton, did oppose the last benchmarking deal, his party is now tied to Labour for the next election campaign and Labour will almost inevitably back the trade union position. There is nobody in the political system to represent the interests of the one million private-sector workers who will end up paying the bill for the deal, even though many of them will not benefit from any increases under its terms.
The problem with the Opposition parties is that while they find it difficult to offer an alternative vision on the really important issues, like social partnership, they often choose to oppose the Government when it is clearly acting in the national interest.
The ongoing controversy over the Sea Fisheries Bill in recent days provided a classic example. In the Dáil, Fine Gael and Labour tried to outdo each other in attacking the Government's attempt to stamp out criminality in the fishing industry. They might have legitimately criticised the Government for failing to act up to now, but instead they lined up to attack the Minister, Noel Dempsey, for doing the right thing. Instead of acting sensibly and exploiting divisions in Fianna Fáil by supporting the legislation, the Opposition made fools of themselves by siding with the worst elements in the industry.
Over the past few days the Opposition parties have attacked the Government on the nursing homes charges controversy for not conceding full liability in the High Court. Such a concession by the Government would push the eventual bill for the taxpayer up from €1 billion to €2 billion or even more.
It looks as if the unfortunate electorate will be presented next year with a choice between a tired Government, which is often paralysed with indecision, and an Opposition which looks incapable of exercising the responsibilities of office.