As the sun scorches down on the Leinster House villa, phones light up.
“We got a poll!” somebody yells to general excitement and/or panic.
Everyone gathers by the fire pit – well, more likely the Dáil bar – to discuss the fallout – who’s been mugged off and who’s cracking on.
Just to labour the Love Island metaphor some more (but let’s stop now) – we’re still probably more than a year out from when TDs face a re-coupling at the next general election.
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It is by no means certain from the results of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll who will form the next coalition, but there were some interesting results for all of the main parties and one of the smaller ones.
As Political Editor Pat Leahy writes in our lead story, support for both Fine Gael (18 per cent) and Sinn Féin (31 per cent) is down four points, while Fianna Fáil and the Social Democrats are both up three to 21 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar also sees his personal rating fall sharply in a poll that is unlikely to ease nerves in Fine Gael.
And, somewhat extraordinarily, the party has not been lower in the Ipsos (previously MRBI) series of polls since 1994, and has only been at this level – 18 per cent – once since the last election.
Sinn Féin maintains a substantial lead over its rivals and remains the most popular party by some distance. However, party support has fallen to its lowest level in two years.
Leahy writes that while Sinn Féin is on course to be the biggest party in the next Dáil, who it might form a coalition Government with – if at all – is unclear.
Today’s poll numbers suggest that the smaller parties are likely to have a significant role in post-election coalition discussions.
In his analysis, Leahy suggests the results could lead to a summer of trouble for Varadkar while noting that Sinn Féin has slipped too.
He writes that the poll comes after Varadkar and other Fine Gael Ministers have been trumpeting the cause of tax cuts in the budget, but there’s little sign of that cutting through with the public in a positive way.
He also suggests that while it is hard to see any real threat to Varadkar’s position, the results will increase nerves in Fine Gael and will fuel the continuing, low-level murmuring about the party leader, probably throughout the summer.
Elsewhere in our coverage, managing director of Ipsos Damian Loscher outlines how Fine Gael is losing support in the mid-income bracket representing the majority of working households.
Our graphics maestro Paul Scott has very helpfully compiled all of the main findings of day one of the poll into seven charts, which can be found here.
And in the lead editorial, the Irish Times view on the poll is that it is a “reality check for Sinn Féin but will cause profound concern in Fine Gael”.
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Best Reads
Miriam Lord tackles Leaders’ Questions in the Dáil and how Mary Lou McMarple solves Tara Mines whodunnit despite being Leosplained.
Wednesday saw Minister for Justice Helen McEntee’s first press conference since returning from maternity leave, outlining her agenda for the coming months. As Jennifer Bray reports, she has spoken out about negative commentary over her decision to take the leave and said that she is aware that there are “some people who don’t approve”. McEntee said that it was “difficult” and “not straightforward”, although she said the vast majority of her political colleagues have supported her.
Elsewhere, former Fine Gael junior minister Damien English spoke publicly for the first time since January’s controversy over his 2008 planning application to build a rural home. He resigned from his role as a minister of State after it was revealed he gave incorrect information to a local authority when making a planning application. He said on Wednesday that he hopes to be re-elected and that voters can “look beyond” the episode.
On the Opinion pages Daniel Geary writes that Donald Trump is “bound for the jailhouse – or the White House and a historic constitutional crisis” as the former US president’s legal woes continue.
Playbook
Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin takes Parliamentary Questions from 9am.
Minister for the Environment Eamon Ryan is up next at 10.30am.
Leaders’ Questions is at noon followed by Questions on Policy or Legislation.
TDs have an opportunity to ask about Topical Issues at 5pm.
A Private Members’ Bill on flood insurance from Sinn Féin TD John Brady will be debated at 5.48pm.
Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien will be before the Committee on Environment and Climate Action to discuss the Climate Action Plan 2023 from 9am.
The Committee on Housing is looking into dereliction and vacancy and will hear from the County and City Management Association (CCMA) as well as officials from the Department of Housing at 9.30am.
Sport Ireland will be quizzed at the Committee of Public Accounts (PAC) from 9.30am.
Representatives from the Office of the Ombudsman for Children will be at the Committee on Public Petitions at 1.30pm.
The full Dáil, Seanad and committee schedules can be found here, here and here.
