Three political think-ins on Monday jostled for attention in advance of the Dáil’s return on Wednesday.
The Greens and Sinn Féin gathered (separately, it should be said) in Dublin city centre, with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald donning her best “bring it on” face. A flurry of policy announcements in recent weeks from her party and a deeply personal interview last week in which she discussed her family’s health challenges have been the latter, public stages of the party’s efforts to refloat itself after sinking so badly in the local and European elections. Recent polls suggest it is making some progress. The same polls also noted the precariousness of the Greens’ existence.
Fianna Fáil leader and Tánaiste Micheál Martin’s speech to his parliamentary party’s gathering out in sunny Killiney, south Co Dublin, contained the now customary complaints about shortcomings of opinion polls and the media narrative that flows from them. It also contained messages that seemed to be intended for other people in Government — perhaps even the Taoiseach? “We have an obligation to govern and not engage in some form of permanent campaign,” said Martin.
Overall, the think-ins, and associated media outings, suggested that all parties are gearing up to embark on a massive political auction. The Greens are promising to extend free public transport for children while McDonald pledged a billion euros for disadvantaged areas.
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But sooner or later, they all keep coming back to the subject that is on everyone’s minds — the timing of the general election. The Coalition leaders insist that they have not discussed the matter — which, if true, is remarkable and probably does not suggest open and honest communications at the top of Government. Yesterday, Taoiseach Simon Harris reiterated that he wanted the administration to last its full term — though he declined to be drawn on exactly when that might be.
He had not, he corrected Pat Kenny, been “been quite as definitive” that the election would be next year. “You can never foresee around every single corner in politics,” he said. Ears pricked up across Government.
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Green leader Roderic O’Gorman indicated a preference for next year, though conceded it could be earlier. He said the issue had not been formally discussed. When pressed, he eventually said it hadn’t been informally discussed either.
Last week, at his think-in, Harris sought to shift responsibility for any U-turn on an election date on to his Coalition partners. This week, they are returning the service with added topspin. A February election would be “ideal”, said Martin. If he thinks that, he is near enough the only man in his party who does.
Interestingly, Martin said that there would be no need to have byelections before the election if the Government decided to go the full distance until next February or March. The Government had received legal advice on this point, he said. Though quite why it would seek legal advice on this point if it wasn’t discussing the date of the next election is unclear.
The truth of the matter is this: Government parties (and everyone else) are preparing in the assumption of a November general election because that is so obviously in their political interests.
And because it is in their interests, they will probably find a way to do that, and an agreed narrative that gets them there. They just don’t seem to have even begun to figure out what that is yet.
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