Good morning.
We’ve got a special US election edition of Inside Politics today, coming to you from Palm Beach, Florida.
Election fever is germinating in Ireland with Taoiseach Simon Harris expected to go to the Áras later this week, but it is nearing the epidemic phase over here.
There will be no shortage of cliches over the coming days, but here’s one to start: the contest between republican former president Donald Trump and Democrat vice-president Kamala Harris appears to be too close to call.
Polls suggest the rivals are neck and neck in the popular vote, which does not determine who wins, as Hillary Clinton knows only too well from eight years ago. The latest figures for the seven key swing states, which should decide who triumphs under the electoral college system, are all landing within or close to the margin of error, according to RealClearPolitics, albeit with Trump narrowly ahead in a majority of them.
Early voting in the election finished on Friday, with more than 70 million people turning out already, around 45 per cent of the total poll from four years ago. The remainder of the active electorate will queue up to cast their ballots tomorrow.
The democratic process is being closely watched and this election is unlikely to conclude without some form of controversy or challenge, with paranoia high after the 2020 experience.
Trump yesterday spent a decent chunk of his speech to a rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, the most valuable of the swing states, suggesting, without citing evidence, that the election system, polling firms and media are corrupt and conspiring against him.
A poll from Iowa suggesting he has been overtaken by Harris seemed to particularly get his back up. US correspondent Keith Duggan has been writing about that here.
Trump also suggested he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after the 2020 election given what has happened to the economy and border since. “Here’s all you need to know: Kamala broke it and we’re going to fix it.”
Harris yesterday made a series of stops in another battleground state, Michigan, suggesting to a crowd in East Lansing that she has “momentum” on her side but that nobody should “sit on the sidelines” or take anything for granted.
“Can you feel it? And we have the momentum because our campaign is tapping into the ambitions, the aspirations and the dreams of the American people.”
The term “nauseously optimistic” was used by one pundit when talking about the Harris campaign on CNN on Sunday night.
Trump is to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan today to make his closing pitch to voters. He will be in Florida tomorrow night, with his election watch party taking place at a convention centre just a short spin from his Mar-a-Lago residence.
Harris, who will be having her election night event at Howard University in Washington DC, is to visit Pennsylvania later, but her campaign is holding rallies in the seven swing states.
In a polarising contest between two very different candidates, there are not too many undecideds or votes up for grabs, so the key for Harris and Trump will be to energise those yet to vote and maximise their turnout on election day.
Having travelled thousands of kilometres across the US over the last fortnight and spoken to hundreds of voters, it seems many of those planning to vote for Trump are true believers, whereas a not insignificant portion backing Harris like her but also support her for not being Trump. This, perhaps, is not surprising given Trump has been on the ballot for three election cycles now and Harris stepped in just months ago when it became clear that Joe Biden was not up to the task of defeating the republican for a second time.
The fact abortion is on the ballot in several states after Roe v Wade was overturned by the US Supreme Court in 2022, something Trump has taken credit for, could be a motivation for more moderate republican voting women to turn out and lend the Democrat candidate their votes.
Anyway, we shouldn’t have to wait too much longer for an election result, right?
There should be some indication in the early hours of Wednesday when voting closes, exit poll findings start trickling through and partial results start coming in. However, with things as close as they seem to be, and more scrutiny on the wider electoral process than ever before, it could be a long week.
Four years ago, it took until the Saturday morning after a Tuesday election for the networks to project that Biden had won. Buckle in.
The view of two – what do swing state voters think?
In Atlanta, Georgia, Jefferson Fields, a retired author and broadcaster, explained he is a registered Independent whose “first vote was for Richard Nixon and my most recent was for Kamala Harris”. He says he would “vote for the Wizard of Oz over Donald Trump”.
“I was sad to see Joe Biden step away, I really was, but after he did, I realised it was the right thing because we could have lost this election to Donald Trump,” he says.
“It’s a very close race and the amazing thing to me is having to admit that half the people in my country are so ignorant as to support this man and want to put him back into office. It’s insane. I am totally embarrassed for United States and that this is going on while the world is watching.”
What does he fear might happen if Harris loses?
“Total chaos, with a barely literate autocrat suddenly given the power of Hitler and Putin to go after his political enemies, deport millions of immigrants (many of them legal), cancel treaties and give tax breaks to billionaires like Elon Musk.”
In Tuscon, Arizona, Rick Grossman said he has voted for Trump in three elections now and his main thought was that having Harris as president would be a disaster.
“She has no ideas, she can’t talk without a teleprompter, I can’t imagine her being president of the United States,” he says. “Millions of people will [vote for Harris] which goes to show you that millions of people do not understand what is going on.”
Grossman agrees with Trump’s view that areas such as Arizona are subject to an “invasion” by immigrants. When asked if he has seen evidence of this, he replies: “Actually, I haven’t. I really haven’t.
“I don’t go downtown; I’ve got no business down there. I don’t go to the border, but I see what’s happening in places where the immigrants do go. I see it in the news, I see it in the newspapers, on TV. But as far as me personally having a problem, no, I haven’t.”
Best Reads
- Our US correspondent Keith Duggan has written this piece offering an overview of what has been an extraordinary campaign.
- My latest piece is from the wall in southern Arizona. Border security has been a big issue in the campaign, with both candidates, using very different rhetoric, pledging to crackdown on illegal immigration should they emerge victorious.
- Columnist Una Mullally looks at how winning over some anti-Trump republicans could put the Democratic Party in a difficult spot as it looks to the future.
- Columnist Cliff Taylor has been looking at what Trump might do if he wins, and what it could mean for the Irish economy.
- Anna Nicolau has been looking at how US news media are increasing efforts to combat an expected barrage of disinformation during and after Tuesday’s election.
- Finally, on Friday’s Inside Politics podcast, Hugh, Keith and I discussed the state of the race and the key issues that keep coming up for voters.
The final countdown to the US election
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