Housing is set to be one of the biggest issues in this upcoming general election. In an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll in September, 16 per cent said house prices were one of the issues most likely to influence their vote in the election, while 8 per cent said the cost of renting would impact on their voting decision. Here are some of the issues and policies that will be on the minds of voters on polling day.
Building targets
With demand outstripping supply for homes, house building targets will be one of the main issues for voters in this election.
House building has increased, despite slowed progress since Covid-19. The Government had set an initial target of 33,450 homes for this year.
So far, the number of homes built is marginally behind the number of properties completed at the same time last year, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
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The CSO reported 21,634 new homes being delivered at the end of September. This compares with 22,325 in the same period in 2023.
Forecasts from economists from the ESRI and the Central Bank had predicted that housing output would be similar to last year or slightly lower.
However, there is consensus targets are lower than is needed for population growth.
This month, after a long process, the Government finally decided on new housing targets averaging out at 50,500 a year, up to 2030. The plan envisages 303,000 homes being built from 2025-2030.
Coalition leaders agreed to a 41,000 home target for next year, rising to 43,000 homes in 2026, 48,000 in 2027, 53,000 in 2028, 58,000 in 2029 and 60,000 in 2030.
Help to Buy Scheme
The Help to Buy Scheme assists first-time buyers with their deposit to purchase a newly built apartment or house, including self-build homes. Prospective homeowners will be paying attention to what’s happening with it and similar purchasing supports in advance of the election.
The Government and Opposition parties disagree on the effectiveness of the scheme, with Labour leader Ivana Bacik saying the scheme is pushing up the price of houses. Under Sinn Féin’s plans, the party said it would scrap it and instead introduce a scheme to provide 60,000 affordable homes and increase the number of private homes being built.
[ Parties clash on future of Help to Buy scheme which Sinn Féin plans to abolishOpens in new window ]
Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien has defended the scheme, and Fianna Fáil plans to extend it until 2029.
A Central Bank report showed higher-earning first-time buyers have benefited the most from the scheme over the past six years. In that time it has been used by about 30 per cent of such borrowers.
The household income of the scheme’s recipients was, on average, €15,500 above first-time buyers who did not avail of the subsidy, largely as they tended to buy more expensive homes.
The average €62,800 house price difference is likely to be down to the fact that the scheme applies only to new homes, which tend to be larger and have higher energy ratings than second-hand units on the market, the Central Bank said.
Rent supports
Rent inflation is accelerating again amid a slowdown in the construction of apartments, according to property website Daft.
Open-market rents in the capital rose at an annual rate of 5.2 per cent in the third quarter to an average of €2,476 per month, it said in its latest quarterly report. This was twice the rate of inflation seen at the end of 2023.
Nationally, the average open-market rent was €1,955 per month, up 7.2 per cent year-on-year and 43 per cent higher than before the outbreak of Covid-19.
The number of homes available to those relying on the Housing Assistance Payment (Hap) is also down, according to a recent Simon Community review, which showed that in 12 of the 16 areas tracked there were no properties available to rent within standard or discretionary Hap limits.
With that in mind, renters will want to know what supports are on the table.
The Social Democrats and Sinn Féin have pledged a three-year freeze, while Labour said it would freeze rents indefinitely.
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The Social Democrats published a 10-point plan that included a promise to end “no-fault” evictions and ban vulture funds from buying up existing homes.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil hit back at the Opposition proposals, rejecting the three-year freeze idea, insisting it would lead to a reduced supply of rental properties.
Fine Gael said it had already introduced measures to help renters and small-scale landlords, including the renters’ tax credit and tax relief for small-scale landlords.
The rent tax credit was increased in October’s budget by €250, bringing it to €1,000 for an individual and €2,000 for a jointly assessed couple, with the increase being introduced both for this year and next year.
[ Homeowners have net worth 57 times higher than those who rent, CSO findsOpens in new window ]
Social and affordable homes
The choice for voters on the competing affordable homes schemes is between Sinn Féin’s plan, where the State will own the land the house is built on, or extending the existing scheme where the State has a stake in the home.
Sinn Féin has pledged to deliver affordable housing for eligible purchasers at prices of €250,000-€300,000. The State would retain ownership of the land the homes are built on and there would be conditions on the sale and rent of the property.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are promising to extend and expand the outgoing Government’s affordable housing initiative, the First Home Scheme. Under the shared equity scheme, the Government and participating banks pay up to 30 per cent of the cost of the new home in return for a stake in it.
In Budget 2024, it was announced that the Department of Housing would be allocated €7.8 billion for next year, of which more than €2 billion would be for 10,000 new-build social homes.
[ New homes: ‘Balance between demand, supply and affordability is key’Opens in new window ]
A further €680 million of the department’s total budget is for the delivery of 6,400 affordable homes next year.
Some €1.25 billion is being allocated to the Land Development Agency, to continue its work on delivering social and affordable homes. The total funding available to the agency is now €6.25 billion.
Meanwhile, People Before Profit-Solidarity has called for the €13 billion windfall to the State from the Apple case to fund a State construction company to build tens of thousands of social homes.
Defects
Up to 100,000 Celtic Tiger-era apartments are defective, having with fire safety, structural safety or water-ingress issues.
The Government has promised to introduce a €2.5 billion remediation scheme to fix them, but it is not expected to become operational until next year.
The issues with the apartments mean prospective home purchasers are losing out to cash buyers – mostly overseas investors – because banks will not risk lending to people so they can buy them.
In the meantime a pilot scheme has been approved, which will see the first group of owners of defective apartments reimbursed for fire safety and remediation works that have already been carried out.
Owners of defective apartments and prospective first-time buyers with a budget in the range of apartments will be looking at what plans are going to be put in place to resolve this issue.
Similarly, people affected by the ongoing mica crisis will be factoring in what supports are available to them when voting day arrives.
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