RUGBY:REACHING THE Holy Grail once is all fine and dandy, but to become a genuine European superpower Leinster desperately want to join an elite club containing Leicester, Wasps and their neighbours in red as two-time champs. But, to reach a second final, they have to overcome the ultimate European and French superpower, those strutting rugby aristocrats and four-time champions from Toulouse.
Having overcome the Tigers, it doesn’t get any easier. Nor does it get any bigger. You’d pay the admission alone just to see Isa Nacewa and Maxime Medard. Then there’s Brian O’Driscoll, that regular thorn in Irish sides Vincent Clerc, the Leinster legends that are Gordon D’Arcy and Shane Horgan, a fullback more capable than most of pulling rabbits out of hats in Cedric Heymans, and the mercurial Clement Poitrenaud.
Throw in colossal ball-carriers Louis Picamoles, Census Johnston et al, against Seán O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip and co, and this could be seismic.
If both teams bring their A games it has game-of-the-season potential writ large, like Leinster’s unforgettable 41-35 quarter-final in Toulouse in ’06 which gave birth to the Blue Army and Allez les Bleus.
It would have made a great final, but if Leinster had to bump into Toulouse at some juncture, then a semi-final at the palindrome is perhaps preferable to the final in Cardiff.
These are the last two champions of Europe going head-to-head, Toulouse’s mixture of brute force and cutting edge having wrested the cup away from Leinster by 26-16 in last season’s semi-final in le Stadium. As Heaslip put it on Sky’s Rugby Club: “They took it off us. We want it back. It’s that simple.”
A whiff of vengeance always helps, and in analysing this contest, last season’s semi also makes for a good reference point. Both teams follow along expected lines, save for Thierry Dusautoir being kept in reserve on the bench as coach Guy Noves opts to start with Yannick Nyanga, which means Toulouse have seven changes to last year, and Leinster five.
The selection of Picamoles ahead of the more mobile Shaun Sowerby would appear to suggest that Noves wants to bully Leinster close in. Then again, Nyanga is a wonderfully dynamic flanker and the preference of Poitrenaud over Yannick Jauzion – the try-scoring destroyer-in-chief in last year’s semi-final – gives their midfield more unpredictability and pace.
After lulling Leinster into a false sense of security in the scrum a year ago, Toulouse gradually upped the ante. But Daan Human is on the bench and Benoit Lecouls, who gave Cian Healy such a torrid time, is ruled out.
A year older and wiser (and still only 23), one imagines nobody will be more motivated today than Healy. Mind you, the 110kg Healy is giving over three stone to the 130kg Johnston – whose cousin, Johnson Falefa, is on a typically scary bench which also features Human, Dusautoir, Sowerby and Jauzion.
Rupeni Caucaunibuca mightn’t even make the cut if Gregory Lamboley is passed fit, and history shows us that Noves makes full use of his bench.
But along with an older Healy, the advent of Richardt Strauss and Mike Ross means Leinster are an altogether different unit this season and Toulouse are less likely to have the same levels of testosterone away from their rouge-et-noir supporters.
O’Brien has also since emerged and, along with the mobile and converted flanker Strauss, that gives them the ball-carrying to match the Toulouse juggernaut.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Leinster/Irish double-tackle policy in forcing mauls and turnovers works. Given how the Top 14 is so liberally refereed, the presence of an English referee might prove more damaging to Toulouse, especially at the breakdown. Except that then you recall Dave Pearson’s profoundly poor performance at the Ireland-France game (not to mention Toulon-Munster) in this year’s Six Nations.
The Toulouse offloading game is par excellence, and if they make line-breaks their support play is superb.
But Leinster’s ability to attack space, along with their passing and offloading skills, have improved significantly. So too their counter-attack; Nacewa’s influence from fullback should be more profound than from the wing last season.
Most of all, though, Jonny Sexton was hors de combat then, and with him Leinster’s kicking and running games are incomparable.
At the risk of tempting fate – recalling how David Skrela sliced through for a try in his 21-point haul last season – Leinster look to have a key advantage at 10.
All season the Leinster machine has cranked up into overdrive for Heineken Cup matches, and they will again seek to hit the ground running with plenty of their customary width. This has several effects, such as stretching the Toulouse defence and getting the crowd at fever pitch from the off.
With ambition comes risk, and if there were flaws in their epic quarter-final win over Leicester, it was in their first-half finishing and field positioning, which combined to leave Leicester only 9-3 adrift at the break. So Sexton and co need to turn the screw; make that home advantage count.
Most of all, of course, Leinster will be getting out of their own beds this morning and will be roared on by 90 per cent of the crowd. It’s set for a Blue Day.
