RECENT results between Ireland and Wales suggest the Visiting team has an advantage. In fact, such has been Ireland's recent record in Cardiff that, prior to a ball being kicked in this year's championship, many considered this to be the moss likely win for the Irish side.

Even the first round results have done little to change that view. Against the Scots, the Welsh benefitted from some very fortunate breaks at a crucial period in a match which they might easily have lost. Yet, while they are certainly improving, they are still a very average team by Welsh standards.

For some time now in the Five Nations championship there have been two levels of performance: France and England the outstanding teams with little to choose between the other three. There have been occasional upsets, with England or France beaten by one of the others, but this will always happen without altering the overall picture.

In a strange way, however, the pressure on both Wales and Ireland will be greater today because both will regard this match as one that they have to win to make any kind of a success of the season.

Turning to selection, I was surprised by some decisions after the French game. However, without being disrespectful to the injured players, I do think that the injuries have actually strengthened the squad, rather than weaken it. I do not, for instance, think that Allan Clarke is big enough for modern international rugby and I am not convinced that his throwing compensates for his other weaknesses.

Denis Hickie has, so far this season, been the outstanding player in the All Ireland League, and I have heard he has also played well for Ireland A. He is one of those rare players who emerges from time to time in Irish rugby who has a gift which cannot be instilled by coaching - namely, speed of thought and action.

He has great football talent and is a very good reader of the game. I was surprised when she was not picked in the first place ahead of James Topping, who was badly exposed a number of times in defence by the French.

Speaking of defence, I am sure that Brian Ashton will have spent a lot of time with the players watching the video of the French match with a view to better organisation in defence. Some of the tries could have been stopped by a more disciplined defence. Nor can Ireland allow what happened in the last 15 minutes against France to be repeated. Total concentration at all times is essential if we are to get another Cardiff victory.

Wales do not have the same power in their pack or skill in attack as the French, and Ireland should be able to defend more successfully.

Injuries have also disrupted the Welsh preparations. Alan Bateman is a big loss, but I suspect that the injury to Howley is the main concern. Scrum halves cannot hide injuries during a game. I expect Ireland to put tremendous pressure on the Welsh hall backs right from the start with a view to identifying, and then exploiting, any worries or weaknesses that are there.

I await with interest the Irish performance for a number of reasons. After their performance against France, the forwards know that they can compete with anybody. Our scrum is solid, our lineout capable of winning our ball without too much difficulty and our rucking is excellent. If the pack plays as well as it did against France then the rewards should be greater.

Brian Ashton is essentially a backs coach and is a very respected one at that. He will be acutely aware of our failure to use possession this season and he will have worked on that aspect of the game.

I suspect Jim Staples has been re introduced for his experience and ability to link with his wingers. He will probably be used a lot in attack, either on the short side or with skip passes into that area. I like the look of Staples,

Hickie and Crotty as an attacking force.

Most of Ireland's points to date have been from penalties, and while we can rely on Eric Elwood in this area it is essential that we do not give away many penalties ourselves, because Neil Jenkins is one of the best kickers in the world.

I must confess to being a bit disappointed at the speed at which Ross Nesdale has been introduced, and even more so by the selection of Walsh and Easterbyin the A squad. At a time when the IRFU claims it wishes to get Irish players back to play in Ireland, surely theirs selections send the wrong message to the players who stayed at home and who have been slogging away week in, week out.

I expect it to be a close and exciting game, with the sides evenly matched in most facets of the game. I see no reason for the recent trend to be broken unless we run into some very bad luck. An Irish win would certainly be a great and badly needed boost for the game.

(In an interview with Sean Kilfeather)