The stakes grow higher virtually by the week from here on. Next Saturday fortnight Ireland will begin their quest to become the first side to win three outright Six Nations titles in succession when hosting England. Bringing that more sharply into focus, Simon Easterby will announce Ireland’s Six Nations squad on Wednesday afternoon.
There was encouragement for Easterby and co over the weekend, not least in the return from injury of Tadhg Furlong and Ciarán Frawley, and there could be more to come in the hoped-for recuperations of Dan Sheehan, Peter O’Mahony, James Lowe and Hugo Keenan, all of whom are back in training and could play next weekend, before taking part in the Algarve pre-tournament camp.
Hence, the squad of about 36 players will not veer too far away from the Autumn Nations series. Like Lowe, Sheehan was running by the end of last week, and could conceivably even push for inclusion in Leinster’s game against Bath for his first outing since rupturing his ACL in the first Test against South Africa.
It seems highly likely, therefore, that such a world-class player will be immediately restored. If Easterby and co stick with three hookers, this could mean that Gus McCarthy, or possibly Rob Herring, will miss out.
After winning his first two caps last November, Thomas Clarkson seems a likely inclusion while, inevitably, the backrow remains hugely competitive, especially with the fit-again Tom Ahern back in the frame. If he is recalled, this could see Cian Prendergast or Nick Timoney lose out.
Due to Craig Casey’s misfortune in sustaining a knee injury in Munster’s defeat in Castres last month, there is an opening for a scrumhalf spot, and this would seem to rest between Caolin Blade and Nathan Doak. Blade played a key role in the second Test win in Durban when an original squad pick, whereas Doak was called up after Casey was ruled out of that game. But Doak has been starting more regularly for Ulster than Blade has for Connacht since the arrival of Ben Murphy, an outside bet for inclusion after scoring seven tries in his eight starts.
Otherwise, save for Stuart McCloskey’s injury, the rest of the backs could conceivably be unchanged from November if Jacob Stockdale is also close to a return from injury.
Those named will be able to fully focus on next weekend’s hugely important finale to the “European” pool stages after a profitable third round for the Irish teams bar Ulster. It was also a good weekend for the Champions Cup and a reminder that it still has a unique flavour that no other competition can match.
The ultimate prize is a top-two seeding and the ensuing reward of home advantage all the way through to the final in Cardiff. Leinster are well placed to achieve this for the third season running after Sunday’s mini epic in La Rochelle.
[ Caelan Doris hails ugly Leinster victory that could prove vital in the long runOpens in new window ]
Leinster win in La Rochelle - grit or alarm bells?
A win of any kind over Bath at the Aviva next Saturday will secure first place in Pool 2 and a top-four seeding. But to ensure that top-two seeding, on the basis that Bordeaux Bègles will secure first place in Pool 1 with 19 or 20 points by beating the Sharks on Sunday, Leinster may well need a bonus-point win over Johann van Graan’s Premiership leaders to keep their noses in front of Pool 4 leaders Toulon, who are also on 13 points.
In the event of sides finishing level on match points, their standing will be determined by points difference. Leinster’s points difference (+33) is only 10 better than Toulon’s (+23) and the latter play Sale away in the final game of the weekend at 5.30pm on Sunday, thus knowing exactly what they need to overtake Leo Cullen’s side.
The look on Antoine Dupont’s face as he kicked the ball dead in the last act of Toulouse’s 20-8 scattergun win over the Sharks in Durban told a multitude. By not winning with a bonus point, the champions and six-time winners left the front door ajar for Bordeaux Bègles, who can now seal Pool 1 and top seeding with a bonus-point win at home to the Sharks on Sunday regardless of what Toulouse do subsequently at home to Leicester.
Toulouse would thus be consigned to the second tier of seeds (fifth to eighth), quite possibly along with La Rochelle and Glasgow as well, and home ties against the third-ranked teams, albeit they could well have away quarter-finals.
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Viewed in that light, Munster would be best served to avoid an away tie in the Round of 16 for the third season running. To earn a home tie, and the additional income that comes with that, Munster need to win away to Northampton next Saturday afternoon to ensure finishing above them and at least in the top two in Pool 3, the most finely balanced of them all.
Although Munster moved just above Saracens on points difference by dint of last Saturday’s gutsy win over the Premiership side, the latter’s losing bonus point could prove crucial. Even if Munster win in Franklin’s Gardens, Saracens only have to better their result by two points at home to Castres on Sunday in order to finish above them.
Munster can still finish in first, second, third or fourth in Pool 3. Watching Gavin Coombes make that crucial break in the lead-up to Dian Bleuler’s try last Saturday, the thought occurred that had they not mysteriously omitted their prime ball carrier from that loss in Castres, they could well be top of their pool and have their destiny in their own hands.
One of the weekend’s highlights was watching Munster beat Saracens in General Humbert’s Irish bar in La Rochelle and the round of applause from Leinster fans, including several parents of players. Maybe some of the old mutual dislike has thawed.
Possible Irish squad: (Hookers) Herring, Kelleher, Sheehan. Props (6) Bealham, Clarkson, Furlong, Healy, O’Toole, Porter. (Locks) Beirne, Henderson, McCarthy, Ryan. (Backrowers) Ahern, Baird, Doris, Izuchukwu, O’Mahony, C Prendergast, van der Flier. (Scrum-halves) Doak, Gibson-Park, Murray. (Out-halves) Crowley, S Prendergast, Frawley. (Centres) Aki, Henshaw, Osborne, Ringrose. (Outside backs) Hansen, Keenan, Lowe, Nash, J O’Brien, Stockdale.
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