How would you fancy drawing up a growth forecast for the Irish economy next year? Over the past few years the best method of forecasting has been to think of a number and multiply by two - the economy has grown at an extraordinary rate which has been consistently underestimated by official forecasters in the Central Bank and the Department of Finance. This year the economy could be growing at anything between 8 and 10 per cent, depending on who you listen to. But with the international economy slowing and global financial crisis, estimates of international economic growth are being reduced by the day.

Just this week British Chancellor, Gordon Brown, said that growth forecasts for our neighbour economy - and biggest single export market - would have to be reduced for 1999. It looks likely that the British government will predict growth of just 1 per cent next year, while the outlook for the US is dodgy and Asian economies remain in a slump.

Meanwhile finance ministers and central bankers have spent all week trying to find a way to stop the international financial system from lurching into fresh crises in the months ahead.

Time to slash growth forecasts and call the end of the tiger economy? Certainly growth looks set to slow down here next year, but growth in our major Continental European export markets should help, while many of the factors which have driven growth in recent years remain in place. Falling interest rates will also give the economy a boost moving into 1999.

If the international economic crisis does not worsen, most forecasters will probably be expecting growth here to remain reasonably strong next year - about 5 to 6 per cent. If fore casts about international collapse are realised, however, then obviously all bets are off.