Housing market has serious attack of the jitters after summer frenzy

Belfast Briefing: Anyone buying or selling a house this week in the North may want to wait until after midday on Thursday before…

Belfast Briefing:Anyone buying or selling a house this week in the North may want to wait until after midday on Thursday before ordering lunch, writes Francess McDonnell

By then the Bank of England's monetary policy committee will have concluded its monthly meeting on the key interest rate and more than likely left it unchanged at 5.75 per cent.

But even if the BoE maintains the current rate, it is unlikely to have any significant calming effect on the North's increasingly jittery housing market.

A quick drive around any of the major towns will confirm what most estate agents will not say - there is a lot of property on the market and some of it is selling very, very slowly.

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A few months ago buyers and sellers got caught up in a frenzied property tornado - prices spiralled out of control, bidding wars erupted over semi-detached houses and estate agents happily whistled their way to the nearest BMW dealer.

At the height of the summer estate agents could not get their placards up fast enough on some properties before a deal was done.

Now there is a sea of placards, which are not moving very quickly at all.

According to the latest survey from Halifax Estate Agents, house prices have more than doubled in the North in the last five years.

Before the IRA ceasefire the average house price was around €73,000. Now, according to research from the University of Ulster, the average house price in Northern Ireland is in the region of €300,000 - and that is a modest interpretation.

Belfast has seen some of the biggest jumps in prices according to every survey - the most recent research from the Nationwide Building Society suggests some areas have enjoyed an annual increase in value of 50 per cent.

Houses in south Belfast command some of the top prices: if you want a smart address in the exclusive Malone Road area you could pay up to €5 million for it.

For obvious reasons no one really talks about a price explosion in the North but the factors behind the huge price rises are pretty straightforward.

There were historically low prices, the peace dividend kicked in and there has been relatively strong employment. Add in the high levels of immigration seen in recent years and you can see why the housing market suddenly took off. So if all these factors created a price boom, why has a level of anxiety crept into the housing market and is a crash about to take place?

Tom McClelland, the Northern Ireland residential property spokesman for the RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) does not think so.

"One of the key reasons why prices rose so quickly was the influence of investors in the marketplace - speculators bought up a lot of property very quickly and what we are seeing now in Northern Ireland is just a price correction taking place.

"The economic conditions are still strong and the market is just moving back to levels that ordinary home buyers can afford," Mr McClelland said.

But he does agree that the volume of house sales has fallen dramatically and while a great many people have made a lot of money, no one buying a house in the North is about to get a bargain any time soon.

It will be of very little comfort to any of Seagate's employees living in Limavady in Co Derry, but it is just one of the areas that has seen a massive turnaround in property prices and a huge volume of new development.

According to Halifax, residential stamp duty revenue more than doubled in Northern Ireland between 2005/2006 and 2006/2008 to €125 million, and Limavady recorded the highest percentage increase in stamp duty paid at a whopping 289 per cent.

It is just one more issue for the North's Minister for Enterprise Nigel Dodds to consider as his department continues to manage the fallout from Seagate Technology's decision to axe 900 jobs in Limavady last week.

The Minister sets off on his second major trade mission next week - this time to North America and Canada.

It seems slightly strange timing though, when you consider he is going to be out of the country just as one of his department's key agencies, Invest Northern Ireland, launches Enterprise Week.

Enterprise Week aims to promote a "spirit of entrepreneurship . . . and help businesses to grow" - is that not the kind of thing enterprise ministers are supposed to support?

Perhaps when the Minister gets back he should take a ride on Belfast's newest attraction and think about how he can grow business at home as well as attracting new investment.

The Belfast Eye is a stunning contraption with 42 air-conditioned passenger capsules capable of holding up to 330 people.

For £6 (just under €9) you can enjoy a 15-minute trip that affords you some of the most spectacular views of the city from a height of 61m (200ft).

Alternatively if you are in the company of a Northern Ireland estate agent you might want to splash out on the VIP gondola with champagne option - for a bargain €93.