Investors predict latest rate move will be first of many

For many on Wall Street, yesterday's interest rate rise served as a marker to the end of a 20-year-plus bull run for the bond…

For many on Wall Street, yesterday's interest rate rise served as a marker to the end of a 20-year-plus bull run for the bond markets.

As interest rates have generally fallen since the early 1980s, bond prices have risen as the dividends they offer, or yields, fall in line with interest rates, providing rich capital returns for investors.

But yesterday's move is widely forecast to have been the first in a series of rate rises that will push bond prices lower.

Expectations of rate rises have already led the $3,000 billion-plus (€2,463 billion) US Treasury market to its worst quarterly returns in 24 years in the three months to June.

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"You're not going to get the gains we saw before in bonds," said John Derrick, director of research at US Global Investors. "There's a floor to how low rates and yields can go."

Despite the rout in bond prices over the last quarter, the markets had steadied in the run-up to the Fed's decision in the belief that future rate rises were largely now priced into the market.

Strategists and fund managers do not predict disaster, though they acknowledge returns will be lower.

A decline in issuance - an indicator of market confidence - was related to strong corporate profits lessening the need for borrowing, he said.

"Given that Mr Greenspan has bent over backwards to telegraph the FOMC's intention to raise rates, I doubt many companies feel they will have missed the boat on borrowing."

Investors have also pointed out that the historically low level of rates means an increase will still mean affordable borrowing.

Citing the predicted end-of-year rate, James Kauffmann, head of fixed income at ING Investment Management, said: "Fed funds at 2.25 per cent ... doesn't change anyone's behaviour."

But the low level of rates even after rises - which can take up to 18 months to feed into the economy - might fail to curb the recent pick-up in inflation.

Unexpectedly strong inflation could force the Fed to raise rates more aggressively.

This would push bond prices lower, and any uncertainty the extra rate rises created could weigh further on prices.