Last week's MRBI/Irish Times opinion poll showed that 78 per cent of people felt that the State as a whole is better off but only 43 per cent felt that they personally were better off. Does this matter? It does seem to imply that 35 per cent of people - the difference between the two figures - feel that growth has benefited people other than themselves. But the poll did not show that the 35 per cent minded, or that they felt that the State being better off necessarily involved only rich people being better off. Some people may not feel better off and may recognise that the 80,000 people who were previously unemployed and now have jobs feel a greater improvement than them. Should anyone begrudge them that feeling of improvement?
Anyone who works in Microsoft in the Republic and has shares in the company has seen the value of the shares rise by more than four times in the last four years (even after this week's events). They have done well, not just from the Republic, but from working in the world economy. I don't mind that there are Microsoft paper millionaires. Who does? Should tax policy have ensured that for every increase in the Microsoft share price, a large enough chunk should have been taxed so that the rate of increase of the rest of us should be equal with the Microsoft worker's increase? Definitely not.
The aim of social and economic policy cannot be that all should benefit equally from economic growth. This would involve a hugely bureaucratic, intrusive and impossible task. Even more so, it cannot be the aim of public policy that all people should equally feel that they have benefited equally from economic growth, whatever the reality. Public policy cannot be aimed at achieving certain feelings among the population, nor at achieving mechanically equal outcomes. A balance, yes, but not total equality.
What social policy can and should aim for is practical steps to end long-term unemployment; to eliminate illiteracy; to provide houses, healthcare and education to those who cannot afford it; to provide drug rehabilitation services. All these things help to eliminate poverty.
It is of secondary importance whether all people feel that they have benefited from such steps, just as it is of minor importance whether everyone feels they have benefited from the strong growth in the high-tech sector.
While the poll says that only 43 per cent of people feel better off materially, a lot more people must be actually so. My bet is that there is a large element - I don't know how large - of eaten bread being soon forgotten in this. Do people really remember how well off they were five years ago? In any case, whether they do or not ought to have no implications for the design - as opposed to marketing - of policy.
Of course, the marketing of policies and products depends a lot on opinion polls. Margins of error are a big issue, if one's business depends on predicting a market. Many will have noticed, since this paper always explicitly reports it, that the MRBI poll had a margin of error of about 3 per cent and the sample size was 1,000. In addition to the margin of error within this poll, the survey itself has a 95 per cent chance of being an accurate representation of the population.
Great care has to be used for sub-samples within polls. In the survey last week the PDs received 3 per cent core support. Sixty-three per cent of PDs were reported to be dissatisfied with the Government. This 63 per cent had a margin of error, as a representation of the general population of PD supporters, of plus or minus 17 per cent.
The margin of error matters a lot. On the highly debated question of a cut in the marginal rate of tax, the poll shows wide, overlapping bands of opinion among party supporters. Between 39 and 75 per cent of PD supporters, 43 and 53 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters, 31 and 45 per cent of Fine Gael supporters and 34 and 53 per cent of Labour supporters wish to see a cut. It could be that more Fianna Fail or Labour supporters wish to see the top rate cut than PD supporters. We cannot say that a majority or minority of supporters of any party, other than Fine Gael, is in favour of a cut in the marginal rate. In politics as in business, the smaller the sub-group, the weaker the conclusions that a poll supports. You wouldn't want to bet a marketing campaign on wide bands of opinion. You'd need to increase the sample size, and inevitably spend more money, to reduce risk. Oliver O'Connor is editor of the monthly publication, Finance.
E-mail: ooconnor@indigo.ie
