UP TO one in six European banks is set to fail an EU-wide financial health check, according to euro zone sources close to the stress-testing, as officials scramble to set up backstops for those at risk.
The result, which the European Central Bank and others hope will persuade investors the European Union was finally coming clean about the extent of banks’ problems, will pressure reluctant states to prop up lenders that cannot raise money.
Euro zone sources said the European Banking Authority (EBA) was set to announce within weeks that 10-15 of 91 banks being scrutinised had failed, with casualties expected in Germany, Greece, Portugal and Spain.
The checks will provide the first picture of the health of EU banks since a previous round a year ago was deemed too lax. In that round, Irish banks were all given a clean bill of health months before their difficulties drove the country to seek an international bailout.
The new checks will measure how well the core capital that banks rely on to absorb losses, such as unpaid loans, holds up when exposed to an economic dip or fall in property prices.
They also gauge the impact on banks should government bonds they own, issued by states such as Greece, lose value. But the tests stop short of assessing the full impact of a country defaulting, including the likely resultant freeze in interbank lending.
In the drive for credibility, the EBA, which runs the tests, and the ECB, which sets the economic scenarios, have pushed for more banks to fail than last year’s seven.
“How many do we expect to fail? I would say 10 to 15,” said one senior euro zone central banking source.
The EBA wants the number of banks that do not pass the tests to be around that level to show the examinations were serious, said a second source, adding the authority did not want to push for more, for fear it could spark panic.
“In order to demonstrate that it is credible, the EBA would need to show that the number of bank failures is significant, without being substantial,” said the source. “A number in the teens is about right.” A spokeswoman for the EBA said testing was still under way and declined to comment.
The tests are technical, as well as political. While the EBA and ECB want to show up the failures, national regulators want to stop their banks appearing on the list, concerned they would look incompetent for not having spotted problems themselves.
EU authorities want to expose laggard groups around the EU, said the second source, avoiding too many problems in weak countries, such as Spain, as that could prompt international lenders to shun the country and its banks. – (Reuters)
