`PfP involves joint exercises with NATO on sea or land. Will they take place in Ireland? Will we be able to choose the NATO countries with whom we wish to have exercises? Will we have British troops back in the Curragh, the French in Bantry Bay, the Germans on Banna Strand, the Spanish in Kinsale and the Americans in Lough Foyle? Is that what we are talking about, or will we take part in exercises abroad under NATO command?"
Mr Bertie Ahern posed these questions in the Dail on March 28th, 1996. The answer to most of them is yes. This is so because Mr Ahern's Government decided this week that it should be so. The Government's PfP presentation document says joint military training with NATO countries could indeed take place in Ireland or abroad, and that the UN training school in the Curragh could be made available for this purpose.
It is therefore likely that we will have "British troops back in the Curragh".
The familiar divisions over whether there should be a plebiscite before participating in PfP will be aired next week for the last time. The Government has refused Opposition demands for an open-ended debate and says a vote will take place next Thursday. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, intends to sign up before the end of the month.
PfP has dominated the recent debate over Ireland's international military involvement, but it is just one aspect of the changing European security structures in which Ireland is playing a part. The EU summit in Cologne last June agreed that the military planning and co-ordination functions of the Western European Union (WEU) be incorporated into the EU. Ireland is fully involved in the discussions on how to bring this about, and the transfer of these functions to the EU is expected to be complete by the end of 2000.
The change will give the EU capacity to make military decisions, although only involving peacekeeping operations. No mutual defence obligation is imposed on EU members, but the statement of the German European Affairs Minister, Mr Gunther Verheugen, that this will "set down the foundations of a European Defence Union" will add to the suspicions of those who feel Ireland is steadily moving towards becoming part of such a union.
An EU military/political committee is to be established and EU military staff will be recruited to help the planning of operations to be conducted under national or European NATO command. The Government intends to participate in any new structures.
These developments on EU security and defence are significant, although they have gone relatively unnoticed in Ireland. There has been little debate on them, although the long-time campaigner against ceding sovereignty to the EU, Mr Anthony Coughlan, drew attention to them this week.
The Government insists that there is no threat to neutrality arising either from PfP or from the incorporation of WEU functions into the EU. It is right, in that there is no commitment to mutual defence involved. However, the Government faces a particular problem in defending this position, as it is precisely the opposite of what was said by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, when in Opposition.
Then Mr Ahern said: "We would regard any attempt to push Partnership for Peace or participation in Western European Union tasks by resolution through this House without reference to the people who under our Constitution have the right `in final appeal to decide on all questions of national policy' as a serious breach of faith and fundamentally undemocratic . . ."
However, despite some internal dissent over the reneging on Mr Ahern's pledge to hold a referendum, Fianna Fail expects no defections from its ranks for the Dail vote on PfP next week. On Tuesday night, deputies and senators will have the Government's decision explained to them by Mr Andrews. This is intended to be "not a discussion, but a briefing", according to a party spokesman. Some TDs may voice their disapproval of the U-turn, but suggestions of even a mini-revolt are discounted by party sources.
In any event, the passage of the motion is assured by Fine Gael, who may attempt to amend the Government proposal but presuming this fails will vote to sign up to PfP without a referendum. If the Government motion does not promise a sufficiently strong involvement in PfP, according to the party's foreign affairs spokesman, Mr Gay Mitchell, he will put down an amendment to strengthen it.
"We should be among the architects of the new European security structures", he says. "We have great experience of peacekeeping, the world is changing and we have something to contribute."
Labour's demand for a referendum is "absurd", he says, and is designed "to paper over divisions in the Labour Party.
Labour, hopelessly divided on the central issue of whether Ireland should have anything to do with PfP, has united around a demand for a plebiscite. The party will table an amendment next week seeking such a plebiscite, and when this is defeated the party will vote against the Government motion to sign up on the grounds that the referendum pledge should have been honoured.
The Green Party will oppose PfP outright, and is also likely to support the Labour position seeking a referendum. Mr Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party, Mr Caoimhghin O'Caolain of Sinn Fein and some of the Independents will also take this position.
But with Fine Gael support, the Government should have a comfortable majority for one of the most open and transparent U-turns in recent political history.
