Harare's commuter vans are abuzz with animated discussions about President Robert Mugabe's future in the wake of his shock defeat in a constitutional referendum last week.

"He must resign," said an outgoing large man, in the Shona language. "We voted that we do not want him any more. He should step down gracefully just like Nelson Mandela and like Julius Nyerere did in Tanzania."

Others sitting cheek by jowl in the 10-seater van said Mr Mugabe would never resign. "He is determined to stay on as long as he can," said an older man. "He has a young wife and she does not want him to retire now."

The vans, which rattle between Harare's townships, city centre and industrial areas, are the main form of transport for the city's workers. Conversation ranges from the weather to prices and, increasingly, to politics. The commuters are mostly residents of townships, the teeming black suburbs where Mr Mugabe's constitution was resoundingly rejected last week.

"Mugabe will stay on until he is forced out. And once we vote him out, we will press charges against him for stealing our country's money," said a woman in a smart blue and white dress. "So maybe Mugabe will want to run away. Maybe he will go to Libya, since he is such good friends with Gadafy."

Others picked up on this idea and playfully suggested he might go to Ethiopia, which would be a kind of reciprocal fair play since Zimbabwe is currently giving refuge to that country's former dictator, Mengistu Haile Mariam. South Africa was rejected for being too close.

Mugabe would never go to Britain, they agreed, not after the arrest of Pinochet and the recent incident where gay activists tried to make a citizens' arrest of him in London. Malaysia - since Mugabe is great friends with Mahathir Mohamed - and North Korea were selected as the most likely choices.

The light-hearted discussion, full of jokes and chuckles, nonetheless highlighted a major shift in Zimbabwean politics: people now speak openly about life after Mugabe.

Even two years ago, his hold on power was seen as so strong that his departure was rarely discussed openly. But the combination of the unpopular Congo war, inflation of 60 per cent, continued corruption scandals and fuel shortages have made Mr Mugabe highly unpopular. Talk about how he will leave office is constant.

Some people say he should resign immediately, following the loss of the constitutional referendum. Most say Mr Mugabe (75) should retire when his current term of office expires in 2002. No one, except perhaps his most die-hard supporters, suggests he should carry on as President indefinitely, as a president for life.

After the humiliating defeat of his custom-made constitution by 55 per cent on Tuesday, Robert Mugabe addressed the nation on state television. Stiff and restrained, he accepted the rejection of the voters without recrimination and called on the "rich mosaic" of Zimbabwe's races to work together to build a better future for all.

Magnanimous and succinct, Mr Mugabe specifically avoided the bitter tirades against whites, the Western powers and gays that have become commonplace in his speeches.

Heaving a collective sigh of relief, the Zimbabwean public welcomed the statesmanlike speech. Black and white, urban and rural, rich and poor, the people yearn for a leader who will bring them together and lead the country to overcome its problems.

"That speech was wonderful. Mugabe said all the right things," exuded the fat man in the commuter van. "I was expecting him to be angry and threatening, but he wasn't. We haven't seen Mugabe like that since the early 1980s."

Robert Mugabe won international acclaim in 1980 by calling for racial reconciliation when the country was still bleeding from the 16-year war to end Rhodesian minority rule. In recent years his public speeches have been divisive harangues in which he has lashed out at scapegoats and enemies, real and perceived. But this speech accepting that the defeat of his referendum was a return to the 1980 form in which he assumed the "father of the nation" mantle.

But it is unlikely that he will maintain that kindly public posture for long. Parliamentary elections are due in mid-April, although the President has not yet set the exact date, and Mr Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party are expected to battle for their political lives.

The referendum has tapped the widespread opposition to Mr Mugabe's continued rule, particularly the economic ruin that it has caused the country. He must turn that around or watch his party go down in defeat.

Certainly ZANU-PF will not be able to retain its current lock-hold on parliament in which it controls 147 of the 150 seats. Whatever the results of the parliamentary elections, Mr Mugabe can stay on as President until 2002, but his term of office would be difficult with a parliament weighed against him.

That is not likely, however, thanks to several advantages enjoyed by the ruling party. The elections will be held by the Electoral Supervisory Commission, appointed by the President and funded by the government. The voters' roll is prepared by the Registrar-General, Mr Tobaiwa Mudede, who is a member of Mr Mugabe's party.

A recent survey by the Foundation for Democracy in Zimbabwe, a local human rights group, showed that 25 per cent of the names on the voters' roll were deceased, fictitious or multiple listings.

Such a high margin of errors on the voters' roll is ripe for fraud. A UN mission to Zimbabwe in December declared that elections should not be held until the voters' roll could be rewritten from scratch. That is not being done.

The state holds a monopoly on television and radio broadcasts and controls the main daily newspapers. Despite Mr Mugabe's speech, no member of the victorious opposition has been interviewed or even mentioned in the state media. The blackout of the opposition on the country's main news media gives the ruling party a tremendous advantage.

The current constitution also allows the state to give funding annually to any political party that holds 15 or more parliamentary seats. ZANU-PF will get 65 million Zambian dollars (slightly more than IR£1.2 million) this year; no other party qualifies.

It is likely the election campaign will be marked by violence, mostly stone-throwing and fights between gangs of rival parties, but murders cannot be ruled out. The police displayed a partisan bias during the referendum campaign and it is expected they will continue to overlook violence from ZANU-PF and blame all violence on the opposition. Unfair arrests of opposition campaigners are also expected.

Although 55 per cent voted No in the referendum, more than half of the country's 120 constituencies voted in favour. The referendum passed in most of the rural constituencies, but the huge margins in the cities defeated it. the referendum. The parliamentary elections will be held on the first-past-the-post system, in which ZANU-PF stands a good chance of winning more than half the constituency seats.

The President has an additional advantage in that he appoints 30 members of parliament, so that even if ZANU-PF fails to garner an absolute majority by direct ballot, Mr Mugabe can top up the party's seats substantially.

But it is clear ZANU-PF will have to do substantial campaigning to hold on to as many parliamentary seats as possible.

Robert Mugabe's magnanimous attitude towards the referendum results toughened considerably yesterday when he excoriated the party's leaders for being caught "flatfooted". He ordered all members to go out and drum up support in the coming parliamentary elections.

His sharply worded speech may jolt his members into getting out on the hustings and working for the elections. It may be what is needed to keep his party in power. But it is not what Zimbabwe needs.

The warm response that all Zimbabweans gave to his speech in which he accepted the failure of his referendum suggests that he could regain at least some of the stature he once had as a statesman if he would stop trying to prolong his time in power and instead address the needs of his nation.