Long-term residential care beds and home support hours for older people will need to increase by at least 60 per cent, and potentially above 90 per cent, within the next 15 years, according to an Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report.
By 2040, one in five people will be aged 65 years or older. Moreover, the population aged 85 years and above is projected to have more than doubled.
The requirement for long-term care beds in nursing homes, as opposed to short-term step-down or rehabilitative care beds, is projected to grow from 29,579 beds in 2022, to between 47,590 and 53,270 beds by 2040, according to the ESRI research, an increase of 61-80 per cent.
Over the same period, the number of hours needed to support older people to stay at home is projected to grow from 28.7 million annually to between 44.9 million and 54.9 million annually, a rise of 57-91 per cent, the research – funded by the Department of Health – found.
Court to refer withdrawn material in Conor McGregor appeal for consideration of possible perjury
The people behind the numbers as Ireland’s population grows by nearly a third in 20 years
Is your community letting wild flowers grow or encouraging cycling? Could your area be one of Ireland’s Greenest Places?
Leaving Cert party on Zante: ‘If I had children, I wouldn’t want them to go on a holiday like this’
Health policy choices, such as expanding home support services, can reduce nursing home capacity requirements, said the ESRI, but the “substantial impact” of increases in the older population will “offset much of the potential moderations in long-term care requirements that may arise out of healthy ageing effects or model of care changes”, it added.
“Ireland has experienced tremendous improvements in life expectancy in recent decades, driven mainly by reductions in mortality at older ages. This means there is, and will be, a much larger population at older ages who require long-term care services to support them at home, or within residential facilities,” said Brendan Walsh, senior research officer at the ESRI.
“Therefore, plans and policies are needed for long-term care to ensure the health system is in a position to meet the increasing care needs of the older population. Our findings provide policymakers with an important evidence base to help develop these plans and policies.”
Minister of State for Older People Kieran O’Donnell said the report would be “invaluable for advancing evidence-based capacity planning for residential care and home support”.
He added: “I look forward to ongoing engagement with the ESRI and colleagues in the HSE as we develop and strengthen our future capacity plans in order to meet the needs of our growing and ageing population.”
