YOU are male, aged between 16 and 35 years, with no job. If you are being pursued with a weapon, the most likely wielder is a relative or acquaintance, also unemployed. Chances are that if you are attacked, you will be shot or stabbed.
Location? At home. Estimated time? At night. But if you were in Switzerland or Italy, your prospects of a trouble-free existence would be far worse.
Such is the profile of the average murder victim in Ireland as described in the current issue of the Garda, management journal Communique. Analysing homicide statistics from 1986 to 1995 Sgt Eamonn Keogh of the Garda College Research Unit has found that, despite Ireland's safer European environment, there has been a sharp increase in gangland killings.
By contrast, the detection rate is falling. In 1995 the detection rate for homicides was 78 per cent, which was slightly up on the 1994 figure of 75 per cent.
However, the highest rate of 92 per cent in 1990 has not been matched, and this can be explained in part by the rise in so-called gangland killings, according to Sgt Keogh.
"Detected" is not synonymous with court appearance. Slightly more than half of the homicides in the last two decades have led to a conviction in the courts, and only 20 per cent to a conviction specifically for murder. In a detailed examination of 1995 homicide figures, Sgt Keogh has found that 80 per cent of victims and 92 per cent of accused were male, with 84 per cent of victims in the 16-65 age group and 55 per cent between the ages of 16 and 35.
For female victims, the target age is more randomly spread, while all three female accused in 1995 were in the 26-to 30-year age group.
The main method of killing differs between the sexes. Men are more likely to be stabbed or shot, while hitting and kicking occurred in 17 per cent of cases, use of a blunt instrument in 15 per cent, strangulation in 5 per cent and arson in 2 per cent.
Among 10 female victims in 1995, three were killed by hitting and kicking, three by strangulation and two by arson. One woman was killed by shooting and one by a blunt instrument. No female victim was stabbed to death in that year.
More than 65 per cent of all homicides were perpetrated by relatives or acquaintances in 1995, while gangland shootings accounted for 14 per cent. And 21 per cent of cases involved unknown assailants. More women than men were killed by people they knew, at 70 per cent compared to 64 per cent.
In the majority of homicides, there was no apparent motive, according to the author. Disputes and revenge are the principal identified reasons recorded, followed by gangland crimes. Larceny was involved in 8 per cent of cases recorded for 1995, while sexual reasons and jealousy were identified in 6 per cent. Among female victims, the principal motive recorded for killing was sexual.
Children and students are more likely to be perpetrators than housewives or others in full-time employment, according to Sgt Keogh. The employment status of victims was unknown in 22 per cent of cases, while 39 per cent were listed as unemployed, 18 per cent working, 12 per cent children or students, 4 per cent housewives and 4 per cent retired.
