MIDDLE EAST:US president's first tour to Middle East seems unlikely to yield results, writes Michael Jansen
Expectations are low as George Bush leaves Washington today on an eight-day tour, the first to the strategic Middle East during his seven years in office.
The objectives of this journey are promoting a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal by the end of the year and containing Iran's "aggressive ambitions".
He is assured of a warm welcome in Israel, where he is regarded as the most pro-Israel US president ever, and by the embattled Palestinian Authority, which is being propped up by the US.
But the rulers of Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are likely to maintain some distance from a man most leaders and citizens hold responsible for regional instability and violence.
The Arabs and Mr Bush have a very different take on the turbulence in their region. While the Arabs regard Israel and the US occupation of Iraq as the chief threats to peace, the US and Israel see Iran as the main menace.
Arab politicians and pundits argue that by refusing to don the mantle of his predecessor, Bill Clinton, whose efforts brought Palestinians and Israelis close to a deal at the end of 2000, Mr Bush "lost" seven years in the quest for an end to the conflict.
During this time Israel built a 720-kilometre long wall and expanded settlements in the West Bank, making it all the more difficult to create a viable Palestinian state in line with the "two-state solution" mandated by the international community. The Arabs point out that Mr Bush still refuses to engage as a peace broker and argue that on their own, the sides are unlikely to achieve peace.
The general Arab view on Mr Bush's push for a Palestinian-Israeli deal was expressed by an Arab leader he will not be meeting, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who said: "It is perhaps too late to talk about peace in the last year of this US administration. It will be preoccupied with elections."
Sunni Arabs continue to condemn Mr Bush for ousting the secular Baathist regime in Iraq and replacing it with a Shia fundamentalist government closely tied to Tehran and a virtually independent Kurdish state.
In spite of claims that the US military surge during 2007 has greatly improved the situation in Iraq, there is little hope in the Arab world that the country can be tamed in the foreseeable future. The fatality rate in Iraq last year was the second-highest since 2003. At least 24,000 civilians died, swelling the overall toll to between 600,000 and 1.1 million. Although 46,000 of 2.5 million refugees returned to Iraq during the fourth quarter, the Iraqi Red Crescent said they did so because host country visas expired and funds finished.
The Iraqi Families' Association reported parents were selling their small children abroad to secure a subsistence.
Iraq was the hard-core country of the eastern Arab world; today it is seen as its soft centre, on the brink of becoming a failed state. Post-war anarchy there has reduced the ability of other countries in the region to resist fundamentalist extremism and counter rising Iranian influence. Instead of following Mr Bush's prescriptions, the Arabs are dealing with homegrown fundamentalists by rooting out networks linked to al-Qaeda and seeking coexistence and co-operation with Tehran.
Last month Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first Iranian president to address a Gulf Co- operation Council summit and to participate in the hajj, the annual Muslim pilgrimage, at the invitation of a Saudi monarch.
The Arabs were encouraged to make these overtures after the US national intelligence estimate undercut the Bush administration's attempt to play up the Iranian nuclear threat by revealing Tehran had halted efforts to obtain nuclear weaponry in 2003.
Gulf rulers, particularly those hosting US forces, fear US military action against Iran before Mr Bush leaves office in January 2009 more than they fear Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb at some future date.