MID ULSTER:SINN FÉIN Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness took the Westminster seat here from the Rev William McCrea in 1997, prompting the DUP country and western-singing politician and pastor to finally set his House of Commons hat in South Antrim.
Mr McGuinness has firmly colonised this constituency for Sinn Féin. In each of the last three Assembly elections going back to the year of the Good Friday agreement in 1998, he has brought two party colleagues into the Assembly with him, and is virtually certain to do so again on May 5th.
This time, though, Sinn Féin is expanding its political horizons – or, if you like, has got greedy – by targeting a fourth seat in Mid-Ulster. It probably knows that it has little chance of unseating the single SDLP MLA, Patsy McGlone, deputy leader of his party.
Mr McGlone, a grassroots man to his bone, nurses this constituency assiduously and should be returned safely. The target therefore is either outgoing DUP MLA Ian McCrea – Willie’s son – or the new Ulster Unionist woman on the block Sandra Overend, daughter of the outgoing UUP MLA Billy Armstrong, who has retired.
Ian McCrea took more than 14 per cent of the vote in last year’s Westminster election, and 17 per cent in the 2007 Assembly poll, so his seat should be secure. Additionally, the DUP may even have half ambitions of stealing the UUP seat.
Ms Overend is the Sinn Féin target. Her father held this seat on under 11 per cent of the vote and sometimes less than that over the last three Assembly elections. There is also a Traditional Unionist Voice candidate, Walter Millar. Last time as a UK Unionist Party candidate, he won a creditable 7.3 per cent of the vote. Transfers could ensure Ms Overend her seat, but you also have to consider how the quirks of the proportional representation election system might play out here.
It should also be remembered that with careful vote management Iris Robinson in Strangford brought in three DUP candidates in the last Assembly election, with 50 per cent of the vote. In last year’s Westminster poll, Mr McGuinness won 52 per cent of the vote.
“Nothing ventured, nothing gained,” is the Sinn Féin mantra here. It would be close to astonishing if they did win four seats in Mid Ulster – but it can’t be totally ruled out, either.
MID ULSTER
6 SEATS
OUTGOING:
Martin McGuinness (SF),
Ian McCrea (DUP),
Francis Molloy (SF),
Michelle O'Neill (SF),
Patsy McGlone (SDLP),
Billy Armstrong (UUP)
CANDIDATES:
Harry Hutchinson (People Before Profit), Austin Kelly (SDLP),
Gary McCann (Ind),
Hugh McCloy (Ind),
Ian McCrea (DUP),
Michael McDonald (Alliance),
Patsy McGlone (SDLP),
Martin McGuinness MP (SF),
Walter Millar (TUV), Ian Milne
(SF), Francie Molloy (SF),
Michelle O'Neill (SF),
Sandra Overend (UUP).
LOCAL ISSUES:
Unemployment, particularly the losses in the construction industry on which this constituency is quite dependent, and, generally, developing the local economy
VERDICT: DUP 1, SDLP 1, UUP 1, SF 3
