Unemployment in Northern Ireland is likely to rise this year as economic growth slows, it was forecast today.
First Trust Bank's latest
Economic Outlook and Business Reviewwas published as over 100 corporate bosses arrived in the province for a three-day conference at which efforts will be made to get them to invest in the region despite the global economic slowdown.
The bank said with growth slowing in the UK, US and Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland could not avoid the fall out.
However it stressed talk of a recession was wrong. "Apart from the housing market, Northern Ireland's economic fundamentals remain sound," it said.
And it said not for the first time Northern Ireland's relative dependence on public expenditure will help to maintain living standards during a period of economic turbulence.
The performance of the local economy in 2007 weakened towards the end of the year in line with the general slowdown in the UK economy, said the bank.
"Increased levels of uncertainty and a rapidly cooling housing market are starting to affect activity in Northern Ireland in 2008," it added. "However, talk of a recession is wide of the mark. Northern Ireland last experienced recessionary conditions nearly 25 years ago when unemployment, inflation and interest rates were multiples of their current levels.
"The outlook for the rest of 2008 and into 2009 is for economic growth to continue but at some way below its trend rate."
The bank said uncertainty best characterised Northern Ireland's macroeconomic environment at the present time.