Boundary changes will not harm parties, just a few TDs

No party emerges a clear winner but Limerick is a loser, writes Stephen Collins , Political Editor.

No party emerges a clear winner but Limerick is a loser, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor.

The long-awaited report of the Constituency Commission has made fewer radical boundary changes than many had expected, given the big increase in population in recent years, particularly in the constituencies around Dublin.

In the event one seat has been moved from the south side of Dublin to the north side and another has effectively gone from Limerick over to Louth, with some pockets of population changing constituencies in between.

For all that, the report does contain some surprises. The biggest is the carve-up of Co Limerick in order to keep two three-seat constituencies in Kerry.

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The other major one is that Dublin has not got the seat lost by Limerick. Instead it has gone to Louth.

In national political terms the changes do not appear to favour any one party but it will certainly affect individual TDs.

The commission resisted the temptation to increase the number of TDs by one or two, as it was entitled to do under its terms of reference. After detailed consideration its five members decided to leave the total at 166.

In terms of proportionality there has been no great change. While the number of five-seat constituency is down by one to 11, the number of four-seaters goes up from 13 to 15 and the number of three-seaters is down by one to 17.

The preservation of Kerry as two-three seat constituencies, by means of an infusion of population from west Limerick, has come as a welcome surprise to all parties in Kerry although the feeling is not shared in Limerick.

If the county had been turned into one five-seater, as was widely forecast, it would have become an effective four-seater next time around, as the Ceann Comhairle, John O'Donoghue, will be returned automatically.

Kerry South will now become an effective two-seater and the TD most under pressure will be the Independent, Jackie Healy-Rae, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael each winning a seat.

When the relief at the survival of Kerry North has abated, all the parties there will have to consider what impact the arrival of 13,000 Limerick people in the constituency is going to make.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will probably run Limerick candidates to try and hold their voters in the new constituency which is called Kerry North-West Limerick.

The change has caused consternation in Limerick and the politician with the biggest decision to make is the new Fianna Fáil TD, Niall Collins. The family has held a seat since 1948 and he is the fourth member of the dynasty from Abbeyfeale to be elected to the Dáil. He will now have to decide whether to follow his geographical base into Kerry or hope to be elected for the new Limerick county constituency.

The carving up of west Limerick and the loss of a seat to Louth will come as another blow to a county already feeling sore at the decision of Aer Lingus to move its Heathrow slots from Shannon to Belfast.

Labour and Fine Gael will be under pressure to hold their current seats in the new four-seat Limerick city constituency and the chances of a PD comeback have become even slimmer.

In Louth, which has picked up the extra seat, the advantage clearly lies with Fine Gael.

The party's MEP, Mairead McGuinness, was edged out of a seat in the constituency back in May but she should have a great chance of picking it up next time around and accompanying her party colleague, Fergus O'Dowd, to the Dáil.

While Louth has seen a significant increase in population it was still not enough to warrant an extra seat so the addition of a portion of Meath East, which is part of the natural hinterland of Drogheda, was required to bring it up to a five-seater.

The other changes outside Dublin are unlikely to have a significant impact on the outcome of the next election although there will be bitter disappointment in Leitrim that the county will remain divided between Sligo and Roscommon.

In Dublin the main change is the shift of a seat from Dún Laoghaire to Dublin West. While there have been some boundary changes to other Dublin constituencies they will return the same number of TDs.

The striking feature of the changes in Dublin is just how conservative they were. There was a strong case for sweeping changes to reflect the shift in population to the north and west of the city. Instead the existing constituencies have been retained through surgery with a substantial portion of Dublin North being moved into North East to keep the current configuration.

In terms of the impact on individuals the reduction in seats in Dún Laoghaire from five to four and the loss of a chunk to Dublin South will put the Green Party TD, Ciaran Cuffe, under severe pressure, particularly if he suffers as a result of an anti-Government swing.

In Dublin West, the former Socialist Party TD, Joe Higgins, has been handed an opportunity to return to the Dáil through the addition of a seat although Fianna Fáil will also be chasing it. The addition of territory around Swords may not make it all that easy for Mr Higgins to mobilise new support.

In line with its minimalist approach the commission made the least possible changes to the Euro constituencies, given that the country's number of seats has been cut from 13 to 12.

Dublin has lost a seat while Longford and Westmeath have been added to the North West constituency, although there is now quite a population imbalance between the capital and the rest.

The loss of a seat by Dublin will put Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald in serious difficulty. Her failure to win a Dáil seat and her party's performance in the general election mean that a big improvement in the party's fortunes will be required to hold on to the European seat.

The new boundaries will have an immediate impact on politics at constituency level.

The paradox is that if the Dáil runs a full five years the boundaries might have to be changed again. The likelihood, though, is that the next election will be held before that appalling vista comes to pass.